ADAPTATION OF A TRANSMISSION DYNAMIC MODEL FOR THE QUADRIVALENT HPV VACCINE TO GERMANY

Author(s)

Schobert D1, Schmitter S2, Remy V3, Schöffski O41Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Nürnberg, Germany, 2Sanofi Pasteur MSD GmbH, Leimen, Germany, 3Sanofi Pasteur MSD, Lyon, France, 4Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Nuremberg, Germany

OBJECTIVES: The impact of the HPV(6,11,16,18) vaccine to 12-year-old girls has been assessed in Germany by using a static model. However this kind of model cannot consider a change in HPV infection rate over time, as observed with high coverage rates. Further, this model does not adequately reflect the recommendation in Germany to vaccinate 12 to 17-year-old-girls. A transmission dynamic model was developed for the USA to include these features. Our objective was the adaptation of this model to Germany to precise the assessment of HPV-vaccination impact. METHODS: In a first step we assessed the transferability of the model structure to Germany. In a second step we checked input parameters for transferability and identified parameters for adaptation. For the identified parameters, we performed a comprehensive literature research, supplemented by expert opinions to determine German-specific values. The model was manually calibrated to fit observed data in Germany. Calibration parameters were number of annual cases of genital warts and cervical cancer as well as deaths due to cervical cancer to reflect the entire time span of occurrence of HPV-related diseases. RESULTS: The US model structure is also applicable to the German context. Components of the model that had to be adapted include demographics (e.g. mortality), screening participation, treatment and vaccination strategies, sexual behaviour, health utility and economic input parameters. In case no German-specific data could be found, we used data from the UK and the US. Annual number of incidental genital warts was calibrated easily and fits well with observed data. However, changes in a variety of parameters were necessary for calibration of cervical cancer cases and related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: After its successful adaptation, this transmission dynamic model can be used for a far more realistic estimation of the clinical and economic impact of HPV vaccination in the German context.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2010-11, ISPOR Europe 2010, Prague, Czech Republic

Value in Health, Vol. 13, No. 7 (November 2010)

Code

PIN41

Topic

Economic Evaluation

Topic Subcategory

Cost-comparison, Effectiveness, Utility, Benefit Analysis

Disease

Infectious Disease (non-vaccine), Vaccines

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