OBJECTIVES: The medical care of HIV/AIDS patients is becoming increasingly complex involving a host of issues including medication management, co-infections, cardiovascular risk factors and patient characteristics. This analysis used a set of patient characteristics and treatment patterns to explore potential predictors of HIV progression. METHODS: Aids Community Services of Western New York provides primary medical care services to approximately 600 HIV/AIDS patients yearly in WNY. A total of 1128 patients, receiving care from August 2006 through June 2010 were included in the analysis. The patient characteristics, health indicators, medication information and risk factors were used as potential predictors of disease progression. Disease progression was measured by the surrogate endpoints of CD4 counts and CD4/CD8 ratio values. A mixed model with a repeated structure was fit to the dataset (with a significance level of 0.05). RESULTS: The patient population was comprised of 757 men and 371 women; the average age of the population was 44 years. The population sampled was predominantly Caucasian, African American and Hispanic (39%, 39%, and 19%). The most common HIV medications administered to these patients were ritonavir, a tanofovir/emtricitabine combination, atazanavir and a lopinavir/ritonavir combination. The most common risk factors in this population were male with male sex, heterosexual sex and IV Drug use (27%, 15%, and 9%). For the multivariate model utilizing the CD4 counts as the outcome variable, only medications and cardiovascular risk factors were significant predictors. For the multivariate model utilizing the CD4/CD8 ratio as the outcome variable, only the HIV risk factors and medications were significant predictors. Both models achieved global statistical significance.   CONCLUSIONS: The management of HIV/AIDS is an increasingly complex problem which requires constant advances in both research and practice. This exploratory analysis was able to identify significant relationships between patient characteristics, treatment patterns and measures of disease progression.