OBJECTIVES: To estimate the years of potential life lost (YPLL) and present value of lost earnings (PVLE) associated with morbidity and premature mortality in the US due to HCC recurrence after resection/ablation.

METHODS: The number of HCC-related deaths attributable to those diagnosed in early-stage disease were estimated from overall number reported by US public health surveillance in 2019. YPLL and future lost earnings were estimated based on age- and sex-specific US life expectancy, labor force participation, annual wages including a fringe benefit markup, and value of non-market labor productivity. Earnings lost in the estimated 21 months between HCC recurrence following resection and death were also calculated assuming a 36% reduction in market and non-market productivity due to disease morbidity. All costs were discounted or inflated at 3% per annum.

RESULTS: A total of 27,930 HCC deaths occurred in 2019, of which 8,475 were associated with recurrence from early HCC. The YPLL associated with premature mortality from recurrence due to early HCC was estimated at 136,567. The total PVLE associated with morbidity and premature mortality from the time of recurrence amounted to $4.1 billion in 2019 US dollars. Deaths among men accounted for 73% of the total earning losses in 2019 (about $3.0 billion), while deaths among women resulted in a loss of $1.1 billion. This amounts to nearly half a million dollars in lost earnings per death due to recurrence from early HCC.

CONCLUSIONS: HCC disease recurrence and mortality is associated with a significant loss of potential economic productivity in the US.