OBJECTIVES: The early rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine in the UK is thought to have helped in mitigating the effects of the pandemic in 2021. The objective of this study was to assess the economically justifiable price (EJP) of COVID-19 vaccine based on the past epidemiological data from the UK and identify the key drivers of this price.

METHODS: An integrated transmission-dynamic and economic model was used to estimate EJP of COVID-19 vaccines for various hypothetical vaccination strategies in comparison to no vaccination in England between 1 January 2020 and 31 June 2021. The EJP was defined as the maximum price for which the vaccine would be cost-effective from a healthcare payer perspective considering a threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. Vaccination strategies were differentiated by the start and pace of vaccination, coverage, and control measures imposed in the population. The impact of vaccine effectiveness as well as variant characteristics were investigated.

RESULTS: According to preliminary results, the base-case EJP per dose is 23 GBP for vector-based vaccine and 26 GBP for mRNA vaccine compared to no vaccination. The preliminary results showed that EJP of the COVID-19 vaccine in a public payer perspective is highly sensitive to vaccination strategy as well as vaccine effectiveness and variant characteristics. The higher EJP of mRNA vaccine compared to vector-based vaccine was driven by assumptions regarding vaccine effectiveness. All scenario analyses showed that EJP exceeds purchased prices of COVID-19 vaccines in the UK when compared to no vaccination. In most scenarios, the EJP of mRNA vaccine was lower than actual prices when compared to vector-based vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS: The prices of COVID-19 vaccines in the UK appear to be acceptable when compared to no vaccination, but this study raises doubts concerning whether the price premium for mRNA vaccines over vector-based vaccines is justified.