OBJECTIVES: To estimate the disease burden of prostate cancer (PC) under the current treatment pattern in China.

METHODS: A decision-analytic model was constructed to simulate the Chinese patients with PC and the age and gender-matched Chinese general population over lifetime time horizon for the differences in overall survival, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and lifetime direct medical costs. A literature search was conducted to identify appropriate evidence to estimate the model variables. Base case analysis and sensitivity analysis were conducted for the point estimations and uncertainty of the disease burden of PC.

RESULTS: The Chinese PC patients were associated with reduced average overall survival by 3.969 years (8.961 years vs. 12.930 years), reduced average QALY by 1.583 QALY (6.568 years vs. 8.150 years), and increased average life-time direct medical costs by ¥273,021 (¥355,066 vs. ¥82,045). The reduced lifetime QALY associated with PC was sensitive to patient age (change: 10.950 QALY), utility of patients with and without radical prostatectomy (change: 1.358 QALY, 1.377 QALY), risk of distant metastasis (change: -0.920 QALY), and radical prostatectomy rate (change: 0.824 QALY). The increased lifetime direct medical costs associated with PC was sensitive to mortality (change: ¥-67,211) and treatment effect of surgical castration therapy (change: ¥-57,160), patient age (change: ¥47,137), treatment effect of androgen deprivation therapy (change: ¥-41,363), drug acquisition costs of hormone treatment (change: ¥38,871). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations estimated the median and 95% credible interval of reduced QALY (-1.540 QALY, -1.740 to -1.049 QALY) and increased lifetime direct medical costs (¥287,030 , ¥233,110 to ¥452,718).

CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden of PC in Chinese patients was characterized by reduced overall survival, reduced QALY, and increased medical costs that were sensitive to patient age, radical prostatectomy, androgen deprivation therapy, and drug acquisition costs of hormone treatment.