OBJECTIVES

: Value of information is a method to assess and to reveal the expect value of conducting more research to support a decision, decreasing the uncertainty of parameters. This research estimates the expected value of information (EVPI) of all parameter simulated and the expected partial value of information (EVPPI) of parameters with higher observed variability obtained from a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) for Trelegy to the treatment of moderate to severe COPD in Chile.

METHODS : A probabilistic sensibility analysis with 5,000 MonteCarlo simulation were performed from a risk model previously constructed to obtain the second-order uncertainty of every parameter and net monetary benefits (NMB) and net health benefits (NHB) of two intervention using a threshold of 1GDP per capita. Value of information methods were used to estimate the EVPI, whilst EVPPI were calculated using non-parametric techniques to reveal the effect of only a group of parameters.

RESULTS : The population EVPI for an effective population of 160,766 patients with moderate-to-severe COPD susceptible to triple inhaler therapy over the next 25 years are 7,595 QALYs or around of USD$142M (EVPI = $621,888). As mentioned before, the EVPPI analysis were performed for only a group of variables with the widest variability such as, moderate and severe rate ratio, FEV₁ change and SGRQ-C score change, contributing to the overall decision uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS

: Our VoI analysis show that the cost of uncertainty for moderate-to-severe COPD interventions in Chile is high and reveal the cost of taking a bad decision. Unfortunately, it is necessary to conduct more research in order to solve the uncertainty problem.