OBJECTIVES : The lung and bronchus cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. The disease burden of lung and bronchus cancer is very large. This study aimed to assess the trend of lung and bronchus cancer related mortality and incidence from 1999 to 2016 and predict the same from 2020 to 2025 in the United States (US).

METHODS : This is a retrospective analysis performed to predict the cancer incidence and mortality using data obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Puerto Rico Cancer Statistics Database from 1999 to 2016. Curve-fitting method with linear, logarithmic, exponential, quadratic, and power models were used for statistical modeling and prediction.

RESULTS : Mortality trend has continuously increased from 1999 (death cases: 147,777) to 2005 (death cases: 159,217) with a slight decrease between 2005 and 2016 (death cases: 148,869). Whereas, incidence trend has increased from 1999 (incidence cases: 189,423) to 2009 (incidence cases: 217,177) with a slight decrease between 2009 and 2011 (incidence cases: 214,716) followed by an increase between 2011 and 2015 (incidence cases: 222,331), and again a slight decrease after 2015. In predictive modeling, quadratic model was best fitted for death cases (R²= 0.92, p= 0.001) and incidence cases (R²= 0.97, p= 0.001). Between 2020 and 2025, a steady decrease in death and incidence cases of lung and bronchus cancers were observed. However, between 2016 and 2025, the total number of estimated new cases is expected to increase by 4,215 and the total number of estimated death cases is expected to decrease by 9,193.

CONCLUSIONS : Both death and incidence cases of the lung and bronchus cancer cases may decrease from 2020 to 2025 in the US. The burden of lung and bronchus cancer will decrease in the upcoming years in the US.