THE SOCIETAL BURDEN OF PRODROMAL ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE IN THE UNITED STATES
Author(s)
Saxena K1, Sullivan J2, Khandker R3, Ward AS4, Black C3, Silverstein AR5, van Eijndhoven E5, Ambegaonkar B3, Neumann P6
1Merck & Co., Inc., North Wales, PA, USA, 2Precision Health Economics, Boston, MA, USA, 3Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA, 4Precision Health Economics, Oakland, CA, USA, 5Precision Health Economics, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 6Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
Presentation Documents
OBJECTIVES: Prodromal Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) is characterized by the first, early symptoms of memory loss without dementia, and is confirmed through evidence of biomarkers for AD. We estimated the long-term societal burden of prodromal AD in the United States (US). METHODS: A microsimulation of the prodromal AD and AD populations was developed and analyzed using The Health Economic Medical Innovation Simulation model. The initial prodromal AD population in the US was identified from incident cases of AD in the Health and Retirement Study. We assumed AD progression occurred at published rates. The starting population with prodromal AD and AD in 2018 was simulated through 2048, assuming 3 percent annual growth of the prodromal AD population. The outcome measures included Total Healthcare Expenditures, Medicare expenditures, Medicaid expenditures, Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), and Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI). RESULTS: Assuming the current standard of care for AD, total healthcare expenditures rise with disease prevalence, from $18 billion in 2018 to $9.7 trillion in 2048. Cumulative Medicare expenditures amount to $4.3 trillion by 2048, while Medicaid expenditures rise to a cumulative $1.7 trillion. SSDI and OASI (Social Security) are expected to pay out a cumulative $15 billion and $7.5 billion, respectively, to beneficiaries with prodromal AD and AD during our simulation period. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial burden of Alzheimer’s disease is concerning for patients, caregivers and policymakers alike. Emerging treatments have the potential to reduce this burden by delaying the onset of symptoms. This analysis shows that the burden of AD starts before diagnosis; therefore, early identification and treatment are valuable.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2019-05, ISPOR 2019, New Orleans, LA, USA
Value in Health, Volume 22, Issue S1 (2019 May)
Code
PND57
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory, Methodological & Statistical Research
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies, Modeling and simulation, Public Spending & National Health Expenditures
Disease
Neurological Disorders