OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of moderate to severe ulcerative colitis (msUC) on long-term health outcomes and medical costs in Chinese patients receiving current care.

METHODS: A disease burden model was constructed to simulate the lifetime health outcomes and medical costs associated with Chinese patients with msUC, compared to a matched Chinese general population. A Markov model was used to simulate the natural history of msUC and the treatment effects of current care. A systematic literature search was conducted in major English and Chinese bibliographic databases to identify appropriate evidence for the model input estimations. Meta-analysis was the primary method used to synthesize the identified evidence. The constructed disease burden model was then used to conduct a base case analysis, comparing the model outputs between the two cohorts (msUC vs. matched general population). One-way sensitivity analysis (OWSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were conducted to assess the uncertainty of the measured disease burden outcomes.

RESULTS: The msUC model cohort had an average age of 45.2 years, with a higher proportion of patients classified as having moderate disease (67.8%). The base case analysis estimated that the msUC model cohort had 7.54 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) lower (22.95 QALY vs. 30.49 QALY) and incurred ¥289,971 more in lifetime direct medical costs (¥334,993 vs. ¥45,022) compared to the matched general population. The difference in QALY between the two cohorts was mainly driven by the utility of postoperative patients and the distribution of disease severity. The PSA estimated a median lost QALY of 7.48 (with a 95% credible interval ranging from 6.66 QALY to 8.21 QALY) for msUC.

CONCLUSIONS: The major disease burden of msUC in China appears to be the loss of quality of life. Effective treatments for disease control are needed to address this medical need among Chinese patients with msUC.