OBJECTIVES: To evaluate COVID-19 control strategies for optimizing medical service capacity and hospital revenue in Chinese tertiary care hospitals during the late phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS: A decision-making tree model was constructed to simulate health services, hospital revenue, and expenditures for outpatients and inpatients under two control strategies: Strict control (tracking and quarantining exposed individuals) vs. Unblock (only isolating infected inpatients until virus clearance). The model simulated COVID-19 risks and subsequent medical services utilization and hospital revenue based on reported incidence rates of the fifth wave of COVID-19 infection in Hong Kong and the real-world hospital operation data of a Chinese tier III tertiary care hospital in 2021. Base case and sensitivity analyses were conducted using the constructed model with three-month time horizon.

RESULTS: The model predicted 18,904 infected patients (13,543 outpatients, 5,361 inpatients), and 1,331 infected hospital staff during the peak of the fifth wave of COVID-19. The unblock scenario could provide more services (31.6 times more for outpatient visits; 1.7 times more for inpatient days; 3.4% more for surgery volume) and generate more revenue (by ¥220.8 million) than the strict control scenario. Even with low incidence rates of COVID-19 infection, the unblock scenario showed higher medical service utilization (4.1% more for outpatient visits; 2.4% more for inpatient days) and more revenue generation (by ¥12.8 million) over 3-month simulation time.

CONCLUSIONS: Isolated management for inpatients with COVID-19 only is likely the strategy that can optimize medical service capacity and revenue generation in Chinese tertiary care hospitals during the late phase of COVID-19 pandemic.