OBJECTIVES: This study aims to conduct an epidemiological forecast of CKD prevalence from 2023 to 2033. Such an estimate is critical to establish the burden of disease and benchmarks for economic modeling.

METHODS: Prevalence of CKD stages 1-5 in the UK were estimated based on historic rates from the 2016 Health Survey for England (HSE) and literature. Analysis was undertaken at a whole UK population level, with population numbers taken from the 2020 Office for National Statistics (ONS) projection in 2020. The patient burden of CKD stages 3-5 was projected forward to 2033 using two principal methodologies to arrive at a final base-case projection: 1) applying the average expected prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 in the over-45 population (~10.1%) to ONS forecasts of the over-45 population and 2) applying average prevalence recorded in each age cohort in the 2016 HSE (with and without adjusting for excess deaths due to COVID-19).

RESULTS: Factoring in the ageing population and excess deaths in high-risk populations during the Covid-19 pandemic, an estimated 7.19 million people in the UK have chronic kidney disease in 2023, more than 10% of the UK population. By 2033, this will increase to 7.61 million people. While the overall prevalence as a proportion of the age 16+ population is expected to remain constant, among the people with chronic kidney disease, the proportion of patients with later-stage chronic kidney disease is expected to increase from 45% to 51%.

CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of the various types and stages of kidney disease has grown considerably in recent years emphasizing the need for effective policy and allocation of resources.