OBJECTIVES: SARS-COV-2 vaccination has been one of the cornerstones of the global strategy to reduce the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. With over 80% protection against severe forms of COVID-19 and over 80% vaccination coverage in France, SARS-COV-2 vaccination has likely reduced the hospital and mortality burden of COVID-19. However, because children aged 5 to 11 do not contribute substantially to overall mortality and hospitalization, and because SARS-COV-2 vaccines do not offer a strong protection against transmission, it is unclear whether generalized vaccination of this age group would have any significant impact.

METHODS: Using a SARS-COV-2 agent-based model that has been previously validated in the French context, we compared the epidemiological results of two scenarios, with and without 5-11 vaccination between December 2021 and March 2022. In the scenario with, we assumed that 80% of children 5-11 would be vaccinated, starting December 22, 2021, when the vaccines were authorized, at a similar pace then adult vaccination. We compared hospital and ICU admission, and mortality rates for the full population and for 5-11.

RESULTS: For the full population, the model estimated that 101.1 (69.0-133.2) thousands hospital admissions would occur between December 2021 and March 2022, with 5-11 vaccination, versus 100.0 (70.0-130.1) without or a 1,100 (800-1,300) increase, 12.5 (6.1-18.8) thousands ICU admissions with and 12.6 (6.2-18.9) without or 100 (100-200) decreases, and 18.9 (11.0-26.9) thousands deaths versus 18.6 (11.0-26.2) or 400 (300-400) increases. For the 5-11 population, hospital admission would increase by 470 (460-480), ICU by 80 (80-90), with no impact on mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: The results of this model suggest that SARS-COV-2 vaccination of children aged 5 to 11 would have a negligible impact on COVID-19 epidemiology.