OBJECTIVES : Immunisation is the best strategy to protect individuals from Invasive Meningococcal Disease (IMD), however the planned discontinuation of GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK) Hib/MenC vaccine will create a gap in the vaccination schedule at 12 months in the UK National Immunisation Programme (NIP). It is critical to maintain direct protection in this high-risk toddler group against the severe and long-lasting effects of IMD. This model evaluates the public health impact of replacing GSK’s MenC component with a MenACWY vaccine for toddlers at 12 months of age.

METHODS : An incidence-based static population model was developed to simulate the impact of vaccination on the epidemiology of IMD in England using a 30-year time horizon. This timeframe corresponds to progressive introduction of the MenACWY vaccine. Compared to the use of MenC/Hib, the impact on public health was examined when a MenACWY vaccine is introduced into the schedule (base-case); and when no vaccination is given at 12 months of age (scenario analysis). Main outcomes include: IMD cases avoided (with or without sequelae) and IMD deaths avoided.

RESULTS : The base-case analysis indicated that introducing vaccination with a quadrivalent MenACWY at 12 months was associated with improved health outcomes. Protection against IMD caused by serogroup C would be maintained. Furthermore, an additional 255 cases of IMD could be avoided over 30 years with the introduction of a quadrivalent vaccine due to the additional protection against serogroups W and Y. In contrast, no replacement at 12 months would result in 174 additional serogroup C IMD cases over the 30-year timeframe.

CONCLUSIONS : A routine immunisation programme with a quadrivalent MenACWY vaccine for toddlers would ensure that this high-risk population has broad, direct protection against IMD caused by multiple serogroups.