OBJECTIVES: Coffee use, pervasive in Finland, is associated with beneficial health outcomes. We assessed cost-effectiveness of coffee consumption in the Finnish population for the first time. Current consumption was compared to no consumption in different population segments to profile groups that could benefit from increased coffee drinking.

METHODS: A statistical distribution of daily number of coffee cups consumed by population segments was constructed, and a cohort model with a virtual user interface for analysis was developed. The user interface model incorporated parallel Markov sub-models for each included disease. Health effects and costs (2019 real value) related to health and coffee were included. For the primary analysis, separate predictions of mortality, incidence and prevalence of nine diseases, health costs, overall survival, and quality-adjusted survival were made for each age, sex, and daily number of cups, using a one-year (no discounting), five-year, or lifetime (3% discounting per annum) horizon.

RESULTS: On average, the Finnish population was predicted to gain health benefits if adult Finns increased coffee consumption by one cup (125 ml) daily. This would generate 283 additional life-years and 233 additional quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) among Finns in one year. At all ages and for both sexes, three daily cups (375 ml) of coffee is estimated to maximize life-years, QALYs, and years free of diseases. At all ages and for both sexes, the number of daily cups resulting in lowest life-years and QALYs was zero. Current Finnish coffee consumption vs. no coffee was cost-effective over a lifetime horizon, with a conservative population-based incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €21,359 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS: In general, coffee use is associated with beneficial health outcomes and the average increase of one cup daily was estimated to generate positive health effects in the Finnish population. Three daily cups was estimated to maximize the health effects.