OBJECTIVES

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target a one-third reduction in non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality between 2015-2030. Cancer accounts for 22% of NCD deaths, and breast cancer is the leading cause of female cancer mortality. Therefore, reducing female breast cancer mortality is critical. We projected health outcomes for women with breast cancer in 195 countries to quantify progress towards the 2030 target of the SDGs.

METHODS

We used data on incidence and mortality rates for female breast cancer reported by The Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 between 2000–2017. We projected mortality rate and MIR by national income level, as defined by the World Bank, for 2018-2030 using generalized linear mixed-effects models.

RESULTS

Between 2017 and 2030, global breast cancer mortality is projected to increase by 12.4% from 19.02 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.36–20.64) to 21.38 (95% prediction interval [PI]: 19.03–23.93), while MIR is projected to decrease by 10.3% from 0.404 (95% CI: 0.385–0.425) to 0.362 (95% PI: 0.342–0.383). In 2017, MIR was 2.22 times higher in low-income countries (LICs) and 1.71 times higher in lower middle-income countries (LMICs) than in high-income countries (HICs). Although MIR is projected to decrease by 2030 across all income groups (15.9% in HICs, 10.61% in upper middle-income countries, 3.66% in LMICs, 10.2% in LICs), 2030 MIR is projected to be 2.37 and 1.96 times higher in LICs and LMICs, respectively, than MIR in HICs.

CONCLUSIONS

MIR is a better indicator than mortality to measure progress towards SDGs for breast cancer control. The decreasing global breast cancer MIR from 2015 to 2030, despite increasing mortality, indicates that global progress is being made in breast cancer. However, disparities across income levels will remain notable in the absence of significant resource-stratified policy reform.