The Application of Global Influenza Pandemic Mortality Progression and Vaccine Production Strategies As Analogues for COVID-19 Management and Understanding.
Author(s)
Fidler C
Evaluate Ltd, Maidenhead, UK
OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 is one of several pandemics to have happened within the past century – it is still unclear at this point in time, the direction, scale and magnitude this pandemic may continue on. Vaccines are likely to play a major role in shaping the response over the coming years. This poster will analyse scenarios of how the COVID-19 virus could progress and how the manufacturing of vaccines will shape it. METHODS: Official government information and peer-reviewed published literature were included in a meta-analysed to forecast the possible outcomes of COVID-19. This included: the success of developing an effective vaccine, the associated timeframe, the speed and size of production and also the practical and economic achievability of distribution. 2 historical influenza pandemics were chosen as analogues (H1N1 and H2N2) to compare against current reported data trends and governmental policies and information for vaccine production. These previous pandemics were chosen as benchmarks as they both had reported global deaths of over 1 million. RESULTS: Understanding historic response to vaccine production could be used for future pandemic management. Analysis shows that vaccine production based on current predictions would not be sufficient to halt the pandemic should the virus mutate, or lock-down procedures fail, thus leading to subsequent waves. Successful development of a vaccine could result in increased protection against subsequent waves as it did in the 1957 pandemic. However, the timeframe in which a vaccine could be made available is yet to be determined. CONCLUSIONS: There are many variables that need to be factored into the manufacturing of a vaccine, such as its uptake and efficacy. However, it is still probable that it would improve the likelihood of minimal recurrent impact of the virus on the population and effect on society as a whole.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2020-11, ISPOR Europe 2020, Milan, Italy
Value in Health, Volume 23, Issue S2 (December 2020)
Code
PIN85
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory, Health Service Delivery & Process of Care
Topic Subcategory
Disease Management, Public Health, Public Spending & National Health Expenditures
Disease
Respiratory-Related Disorders, Vaccines