Comparison of Seasonality of Common Viral and Respiratory Diseases VS Emergence of Sars-COV-2 Infection
Author(s)
Krishnan D1, Holy C2, Shah S3, Elangovanraaj N3, Gupta S4, Trivedi P3, Devulapally M3, Mohapatra A3, Coplan P5
1Mu Sigma, Bengaluru, KA, India, 2Johnson & Johnson, Somerville, MA, USA, 3Mu Sigma, Bangalore, KA, India, 4Mu Sigma, Bangalore, India, 5Johnson & Johnson, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
OBJECTIVES: The timing of the large SARS-Cov-2 outbreaks in the Northern hemisphere, and the temporary delay in infections observed in the Southern hemisphere during the first half of the year has prompted questions related to potential seasonality of SARS-Cov-2. This study is designed to evaluate patterns of known viral respiratory diseases in different regions of the US to provide a benchmark for comparison with SARS-CoV-2 infections. METHODS: Retrospective observational study using data from Optum PanTher. All patients admitted with COVID-19 diagnoses (starting April) or COVID-19-related severe diagnoses (acute severe respiratory distress - January to April) till end of June were identified. A time-series of hospitalization by region was established. For comparative purposes, time-series of hospital admissions for the flu, viral pneumonia and other respiratory diseases (ORD) for the same time period in 2018 and 2019 were analyzed. Descriptive analyses were used to compare the time series. RESULTS: A total of 70,829 patients with COVID-19 were compared to 46,056 flu, 168,185 pneumonia and and 680,888 ORD patients. Peak case volumes for ORD, flu and pneumonia were observed from January to March, with lowest case counts in July. From peak to lowest prevalence, there was 30-32% decrease in prevalence for ORD, a 41%-52% for pneumonia and a 98-99% for flu. Trends were most marked in the Midwest and least noticeable in the South. The significant increase of SARS-CoV-2 between January and April, with peak in April and slight decline in May, did not match timing of increased prevalence of the other known respiratory viral diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Available data to date did not suggest a seasonality for COVID-19 similar to that of other viral respiratory diseases. A limitation of our study is that the COVID-19 decline in some US states was also potentially affected by drastic government measures not present in prior years for flu, pneumonia or ORD.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2020-11, ISPOR Europe 2020, Milan, Italy
Value in Health, Volume 23, Issue S2 (December 2020)
Code
PIN71
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Disease
Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)