ISSUE

: Decision analytic models are pivotal to informing healthcare decisions at HTA authorities (e.g. NICE). Compared with commonly used cohort models, individual patient models can offer added value by adding flexibility to incorporate patient heterogeneity and/or non-linearity between model parameters and outcomes (i.e. “Jensen’s inequality”). Ignoring this can lead to bias (e.g. non-linearity is a feature that is present in many decision analytic models). Despite these potential benefits, individual-patient modelling is not the default approach both in the scientific literature or in submissions to HTA authorities. Barriers that are typically mentioned (in the literature) include that individual-patient models are generally more complex to develop, debug and communicate to non-experts, and increase the computational burden as well as data requirements.

OVERVIEW

: This issue panel will explore the current and future role of individual-patient models for submissions to HTA authorities and will be of interest to all stakeholders involved in submissions to HTA authorities (e.g. decision-makers, analysts and companies). Manuela Joore, the panel moderator, will provide an overview of pros and cons of individual-patient models compared with cohort models and will raise key questions for the panellists to debate. Subsequently, the pros and cons of individual-patient models as well as barriers and facilitators to their use will be discussed from different perspectives. This includes 1) the consultant perspective (Jaime Caro) related to the preparation of the economic model submitted to HTA authorities; 2) Evidence Review Group (ERG) experiences (Bram Ramaekers) related to the independent review of individual-patient models and; 3) the NICE Appraisal Committee perspective (Paul Tappenden) related to the appraisal of individual-patient models.