OBJECTIVES : Oncology care costs are increasing dramatically mostly due to the high prices of new medicines. Expected patent expiration for several expensive drugs and market authorization of generics or biosimilars may help to increase access to effective treatment within the fixed budget. We assessed the possibility to increase regional state procurement of drugs for solid tumors treatment without extra spending due to the market authorization of generics/biosimilars for the perspective period from 2018 to 2023 in Russian Federation.

METHODS : Random region of the Russian Federation with a 2 million population was chosen as an example. In a model branded drugs were replaced by generics/biosimilars after expiration of patent. Expected prices for branded drugs and generics/biosimilars and consumption growth rate were modeled based on a retrospective analysis of state drug procurements. Two options have been analyzed: 1) consumption of all analyzed drugs stays stable; 2) consumption increases with a growth rate taken from retrospective analysis. The Russian rubles were converted to US dollars at the exchange rate of 2018: 1 US $ = 62.7078 rubles.

RESULTS : In 2018, the region spent US$ 15.36 million on the drugs for solid tumors. Replacing branded drugs with generics/biosimilars after expiration of patent can save up to US$ 1.11 million over 6 years if consumption does not increase. When taking into account the possible growth of drug consumption, it is necessary to spend additional US$ 0.54 million (without saving), but consumption can increase about 8-fold.

CONCLUSIONS : In the perspective period up to 2023 in Russia replacing antineoplastic branded drugs with less expensive generics or biosimilars can lead either to budget savings (thus making possible to reallocate the resources) or to increased consumption thus improving access to treatment.