OBJECTIVES: To estimate the disease burden of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) under the current treatment pattern in China.

METHODS: A decision-analytic model was constructed to simulate the Chinese patients with MDS and the age and gender-matched Chinese general population over lifetime time horizon for the differences in overall survival, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and lifetime direct medical costs. A literature search was conducted to estimate the model variables. Base case analysis and sensitivity analysis were conducted for the point estimations and uncertainty of the disease burden of MDS.

RESULTS: The Chinese MDS patients were associated with reduced average overall survival by 19.688 years (3.241 years vs. 22.929 years), reduced average QALY by18.554 QALY (2.042 QALY vs. 20.596 QALY), and increased average life-time direct medical costs by ¥276,168 (¥408,847 vs. ¥132,679). The reduced QALY associated with MDS was sensitive to patient age (change: 2.381 QALY) and the risk of disease recurrence after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) (change: -1.293 QALY). The increased lifetime medical costs associated with MDS patients were sensitive to the risk of disease progression associated with azacitidine (change: ¥-208,356), and decitabine combined with CAG (change: ¥-95,650), and the body surface area (change: ¥90,054). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations estimated the median and 95% credible interval of reduced QALY (-18.157 QALY, -19.803 to -16.601 QALY) and increased lifetime direct medical costs (¥339,456, ¥219,212 to ¥563,430).

CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden of MDS in Chinese patients was characterized by reduced overall survival, reduced QALY, and increased medical costs. The uncertainty associated with the MDS treatments and patient body surface area could substantially change the increased medical costs associated with MDS.