Modelling Disease Burden in Patients with Myopia in China in 2030

OBJECTIVES : To use a Markov model to forecast myopia disease burden in China in 2030 using currently available data

METHODS : A Markov model was built to quantify myopia and high myopia progression in China and predict disease burden up to 2030, based on prevalence data of myopia and high myopia. Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections

RESULTS : By 2030, there were an estimated 755,126,617 myopia cases, or 56.18% of the total China population (all ages); and an estimate 226,902,188 high myopia cases, or 16.11% of the total China population (all ages). The complications increase as epidemics of myopia continues to grow. It is estimated that by 2030, the affected population will reach 44,301,529 (3.31% of all patients) for myopic retinopathy; 58,315,563 (4.33% of all patients) for myopic maculopathy; 48,907,428 (3.70% of all patients) for myopia-associated cataract; 3,927,843 (0.29% of all patients) for myopia associated open-angle glaucoma. The years lived with disability (YLD) will increase to 3,692,246 in China by 2030

CONCLUSIONS : This Markov model indicated that continued growth in myopia will result in increasing number of cases of myopia and myopia-associated complications, including myopic retinopathy, myopic maculopathy, cataract, and open-angle glaucoma. Slowing the growth in myopia, along with further potential therapies, are required to reduce the disease burden in blindness in China