OBJECTIVES: The increase of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its associated comorbidities are projected to continue grow in Brazil. The biggest challenges are the late diagnosis and poor outcomes, leading to a higher rate of renal replacement therapy (RRT) and mortality compared to the general population, impacting to more costs for the healthcare system.

METHODS: A patient-level simulation model (IMPACT-CKD) was developed to simulate the progression of CKD incorporating the impact of acute kidney injury, cardiovascular events, and comorbidities to assess the impact of CKD on clinical, humanistic (quality of life and lost productivity of patients and caregivers) and economic burden to the healthcare system. IMPACT CKD projects results of CKD over a 10-year time horizon [2023 to 2032]. Validation and calibration were performed against known Brazilian population demographics data. Cross-validation was conducted versus the Inside CKD model, already published.

RESULTS: The prevalence of CKD in Brazil is projected to outpace general population growth, with a mean prevalence of around 12% from 2022 to 2032. Late-stage (3-5) CKD patients are expected to increase by 6.9%, while RRT patients could surge by 142.0%. Healthcare costs attributed to CKD and RRT are projected to rise 19.9% (R$24.9bn to R$29.8bn) and 169.5% (R$6.4bn to R$17.1bn), respectively from 2022 to 2032. The total CKD-related healthcare costs will represent 25.7% of the Brazilian healthcare budget in 2032.

CONCLUSIONS: The IMPACT-CKD study highlights a critical trend: the rising number of CKD patients in Brazil, coupled with worsening outcomes, is set to impose substantial humanistic and economic burdens on both patients and the healthcare system. This underscores the need for targeted strategies to mitigate the escalating impact of CKD.