A U.S. BURDEN OF DISEASE PROJECTION MODEL FOR NON-OBSTRUCTIVE HYPERTROPHIC CARDIOMYOPATHY, 2027-2035
Author(s)
Paulos Gebrehiwet, PhD1, Jesse Ortendahl, MS2, Matthew Sussman, MA2, Laura Cianciolo, MPP2, Jackie S. Lee, BS2, Mike Butzner, Jr., DrPH3, Sanatan Shreay, PhD, MS3;
1Cytokinetics, Incorporated, Senior Manager Health economics and outcomes research, Zug, Switzerland, 2Stratevi LLC, Boston, MA, USA, 3Cytokinetics, Incorporated, South San Francisco, CA, USA
1Cytokinetics, Incorporated, Senior Manager Health economics and outcomes research, Zug, Switzerland, 2Stratevi LLC, Boston, MA, USA, 3Cytokinetics, Incorporated, South San Francisco, CA, USA
OBJECTIVES: Non obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (nHCM) is a subset of HCM with an estimated prevalence of 0.05% in the United States (US), and evidence indicates a growing patient population. A disease burden model was designed to project the clinical and economic burden of nHCM.
METHODS: A Microsoft Excel-based disease burden model was developed to project the nHCM burden for the US population (~340 million individuals). The model considered both current prevalent nHCM cases and future incident cases by applying a previously observed incidence rate to the adult population. Diagnosed nHCM patients accrued costs, experienced healthcare resource utilization, and faced a risk of nHCM death annually from 2027 to 2035. Epidemiologic inputs (prevalence, incidence, incidence growth rate, disease-based age and sex stratification, mortality rate), per-person risk of heart transplantation, and average cost per nHCM patient were based on published estimates. Outcomes included total cases, total heart transplants, all-cause deaths, and nHCM-related direct medical costs, reported annually and cumulatively. Parameter uncertainty was explored in one-way sensitivity analysis (OWSA).
RESULTS: The model projected 80,816 newly diagnosed cases of nHCM and 338,135 nHCM patients in the US in 2027 among the 340 million individuals. Given the observed growth in incidence, 129,494 new cases and 1,075,847 total patients were projected in 2035. From 2027-2035, the model projected 48,270 heart transplants and 155,060 deaths among nHCM patients. Direct medical costs in 2027 were projected to be $4.2 Billion, and rise to over $10.4 Billion in 2035, for a total cost of over $66 Billion from 2027-2035. In OWSA, model results were most sensitive to annual incidence, mortality estimates, and demographic assumptions, as well as per-patient direct medical costs.
CONCLUSIONS: Model results indicate nHCM imposes a substantial and rising clinical and economic burden, driven by an increased incidence, underscoring the need for cost effective treatments to address these unmet needs.
METHODS: A Microsoft Excel-based disease burden model was developed to project the nHCM burden for the US population (~340 million individuals). The model considered both current prevalent nHCM cases and future incident cases by applying a previously observed incidence rate to the adult population. Diagnosed nHCM patients accrued costs, experienced healthcare resource utilization, and faced a risk of nHCM death annually from 2027 to 2035. Epidemiologic inputs (prevalence, incidence, incidence growth rate, disease-based age and sex stratification, mortality rate), per-person risk of heart transplantation, and average cost per nHCM patient were based on published estimates. Outcomes included total cases, total heart transplants, all-cause deaths, and nHCM-related direct medical costs, reported annually and cumulatively. Parameter uncertainty was explored in one-way sensitivity analysis (OWSA).
RESULTS: The model projected 80,816 newly diagnosed cases of nHCM and 338,135 nHCM patients in the US in 2027 among the 340 million individuals. Given the observed growth in incidence, 129,494 new cases and 1,075,847 total patients were projected in 2035. From 2027-2035, the model projected 48,270 heart transplants and 155,060 deaths among nHCM patients. Direct medical costs in 2027 were projected to be $4.2 Billion, and rise to over $10.4 Billion in 2035, for a total cost of over $66 Billion from 2027-2035. In OWSA, model results were most sensitive to annual incidence, mortality estimates, and demographic assumptions, as well as per-patient direct medical costs.
CONCLUSIONS: Model results indicate nHCM imposes a substantial and rising clinical and economic burden, driven by an increased incidence, underscoring the need for cost effective treatments to address these unmet needs.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-05, ISPOR 2026, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue S6
Code
EPH184
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Disease
SDC: Cardiovascular Disorders (including MI, Stroke, Circulatory)