LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS OF PEDIATRIC IMMUNE THROMBOCYTOPENIA BURDEN IN THE UNITED STATES: EPIDEMIOLOGIC INSIGHTS FROM 2025 TO 2050
Author(s)
Divya Narayanan, MPH, Sruthy Xavier, M.Sc. Health Economics, Jagriti Prasad, MPH, Ullas Ulahannan, MPH;
Evalueserve, Bengaluru, India
Evalueserve, Bengaluru, India
OBJECTIVES: Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is a rare autoimmune disorder causing low platelet levels and bleeding risks. The pediatric population (0-17) was chosen for its distinct clinical phenotype-acute onset and high remission-differently marked from adult chronic ITP. Approximately 3-5% of children face severe bleeding risks. This study focused on the US to estimate the incident and prevalent cases of pediatric ITP from 2025 to 2050.
METHODS: A targeted literature review was conducted to identify US-specific pediatric ITP epidemiology (incidence and prevalence) defined by ICD 9/10 diagnostic codes. Age-specific incidence and prevalence rates were extracted and applied to United Nations pediatric population projections. Rates were held constant due to absence of longitudinal trend data. Analysis was stratified into four age cohorts: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-17 years.
RESULTS: This study identified six US-specific studies meeting inclusion criteria. In 2025, pediatric ITP prevalence was 7.09 per 100,000 and incidence 6.29 per 100,000, corresponding to 5,151 prevalent and 4,585 incident cases nationally. Under constant rates, projected case counts remain stable through 2050 (5,189 prevalent and 4,631 incident cases). Age-stratified case numbers show a high-turnover trend in the 0-4 group, where incidence exceeds prevalence, reflecting a predominantly acute, self-limiting course. Conversely, in older cohorts, prevalence exceeds incidence, indicating increased disease persistence with age. The overall narrow margin between incidence and prevalence is driven by an approximately 80% one-year recovery rate.
CONCLUSIONS: While the total number of US pediatric ITP cases is expected to remain steady, high case turnover due to rapid recovery highlights the need for efficient acute-care management over long-term intervention. Reliance on limited data introduces bias, necessitating cautious interpretation. The scarcity of literature underscores the need for robust, age-stratified epidemiological research to better inform pediatric hematology policy.
METHODS: A targeted literature review was conducted to identify US-specific pediatric ITP epidemiology (incidence and prevalence) defined by ICD 9/10 diagnostic codes. Age-specific incidence and prevalence rates were extracted and applied to United Nations pediatric population projections. Rates were held constant due to absence of longitudinal trend data. Analysis was stratified into four age cohorts: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-17 years.
RESULTS: This study identified six US-specific studies meeting inclusion criteria. In 2025, pediatric ITP prevalence was 7.09 per 100,000 and incidence 6.29 per 100,000, corresponding to 5,151 prevalent and 4,585 incident cases nationally. Under constant rates, projected case counts remain stable through 2050 (5,189 prevalent and 4,631 incident cases). Age-stratified case numbers show a high-turnover trend in the 0-4 group, where incidence exceeds prevalence, reflecting a predominantly acute, self-limiting course. Conversely, in older cohorts, prevalence exceeds incidence, indicating increased disease persistence with age. The overall narrow margin between incidence and prevalence is driven by an approximately 80% one-year recovery rate.
CONCLUSIONS: While the total number of US pediatric ITP cases is expected to remain steady, high case turnover due to rapid recovery highlights the need for efficient acute-care management over long-term intervention. Reliance on limited data introduces bias, necessitating cautious interpretation. The scarcity of literature underscores the need for robust, age-stratified epidemiological research to better inform pediatric hematology policy.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-05, ISPOR 2026, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue S6
Code
EPH165
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
SDC: Pediatrics, SDC: Rare & Orphan Diseases, SDC: Systemic Disorders/Conditions (Anesthesia, Auto-Immune Disorders (n.e.c.), Hematological Disorders (non-oncologic), Pain)