GLOBAL BURDEN OF MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM GBD 2023
Author(s)
Weishen Liu, Master of Science;
Harvard Chan School of Public Health, Epidemiology, Boston, MA, USA
Harvard Chan School of Public Health, Epidemiology, Boston, MA, USA
OBJECTIVES: Multiple sclerosis (MS) imposes considerable global disability and socioeconomic burden. This study aims to comprehensively characterize long-term MS burden variation by sex, age, region and socio-demographic index (SDI), informing future public health strategies for MS prevention and management.
METHODS: Burden estimates from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, including incidence, deaths, years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs), were analyzed to quantify global, regional, and national MS burden between 1990 and 2023. Temporal trends in MS burden were assessed using joinpoint regression, and future incidence and deaths were projected using Bayesian age-period-cohort models. Frontier analysis was employed to identify countries with suboptimal MS burden relative to their SDI.
RESULTS: In 2023, there were 62,388 incident MS cases and 19,070 MS deaths worldwide, contributing to 517,323 YLDs and 551,299 YLLs. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of MS burden were consistently greater among female across all age groups. Regionally, Western Europe reported the highest ASRs for MS incidence (4.11 per 100,000), YLDs (28.75 per 100,000) and YLLs (24.56 per 100,000), and High-income North America reported the highest ASRs for deaths (0.87 per 100,000) in 2023. Joinpoint analysis identified common inflection points across four burden measures around 2020 and 2021, indicating potential influences from the COVID-19 pandemic. Bayesian projection predicted gradual increase in global MS incidence and deaths through 2050. In frontier analysis, Germany, Ireland, and Norway exhibited the largest gaps from the efficiency frontier for incidence and YLDs, while UK, Albania, and Denmark showed greatest gaps for deaths and YLLs.
CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest remaining pandemic impacts and highlight a persisting and growing healthcare needs associated with MS. The geographic distributions and temporal trajectories diverge across the four burden measures, requiring differentiated public health strategies addressing MS burden from different sources.
METHODS: Burden estimates from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, including incidence, deaths, years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs), were analyzed to quantify global, regional, and national MS burden between 1990 and 2023. Temporal trends in MS burden were assessed using joinpoint regression, and future incidence and deaths were projected using Bayesian age-period-cohort models. Frontier analysis was employed to identify countries with suboptimal MS burden relative to their SDI.
RESULTS: In 2023, there were 62,388 incident MS cases and 19,070 MS deaths worldwide, contributing to 517,323 YLDs and 551,299 YLLs. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of MS burden were consistently greater among female across all age groups. Regionally, Western Europe reported the highest ASRs for MS incidence (4.11 per 100,000), YLDs (28.75 per 100,000) and YLLs (24.56 per 100,000), and High-income North America reported the highest ASRs for deaths (0.87 per 100,000) in 2023. Joinpoint analysis identified common inflection points across four burden measures around 2020 and 2021, indicating potential influences from the COVID-19 pandemic. Bayesian projection predicted gradual increase in global MS incidence and deaths through 2050. In frontier analysis, Germany, Ireland, and Norway exhibited the largest gaps from the efficiency frontier for incidence and YLDs, while UK, Albania, and Denmark showed greatest gaps for deaths and YLLs.
CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest remaining pandemic impacts and highlight a persisting and growing healthcare needs associated with MS. The geographic distributions and temporal trajectories diverge across the four burden measures, requiring differentiated public health strategies addressing MS burden from different sources.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-05, ISPOR 2026, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue S6
Code
EPH156
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
SDC: Neurological Disorders