MODELING THE IMPACT OF SOTATERCEPT ON MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY IN PULMONARY ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION: A MEXICAN POPULATION HEALTH PERSPECTIVE
Author(s)
Victoria Wurcel, MSc1, Hafez Jalil, MSc2, Murvin Jootun, MSc3, Jacqueline Albor, MSc4, Rogier Klok, PhD5, Gargi Ratnaparkhi, BE6, Martijn Simons, MSc7, Gijs van de Wetering, PhD7.
1Merck Sharp & Dohme, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2Merck Sharp & Dohme, CDMX, Mexico, 3Merck Sharp & Dohme, London, United Kingdom, 4Merck Sharp & Dohme, Bogotá, Colombia, 5Merck & Co., Rahway, NJ, USA, 6Open Health, Bangalore, India, 7OPEN Health, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
1Merck Sharp & Dohme, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2Merck Sharp & Dohme, CDMX, Mexico, 3Merck Sharp & Dohme, London, United Kingdom, 4Merck Sharp & Dohme, Bogotá, Colombia, 5Merck & Co., Rahway, NJ, USA, 6Open Health, Bangalore, India, 7OPEN Health, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
OBJECTIVES: Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) is a rare, progressive disease associated with significant morbidity and high mortality. The phase 3 STELLAR trial evaluated sotatercept plus background therapy (BGT) versus BGT alone, which included single, dual, or triple PAH-targeted treatments. Based on STELLAR results, a previously published population health model was adapted to assess the clinical impact of sotatercept in Mexican patients with PAH.
METHODS: A six-state Markov model was adapted to reflect the Mexican healthcare setting. It included four health states based on World Health Organization functional classes (WHO FC I-IV), a post-lung/heart transplant state, and death. Transition probabilities were derived from STELLAR, while mortality (adjusted for functional class) was obtained from the COMPERA registry and related published literature. Transplant probabilities and hospitalization rates were informed by Mexican publications. Hospitalizations and transplants avoided were contextualized using PAH epidemiology data from Mexican publications. Outcomes were estimated over a 10-year time horizon.
RESULTS: Sotatercept plus BGT resulted in an average life expectancy of 6.47 years versus 4.85 years with BGT alone (1.62 life years gained) over a 10-year time horizon. Per 1,000 patients, sotatercept plus BGT was projected to prevent 1,714 PAH-related hospitalizations (90% avoided hospitalizations) and 5.39 lung or heart-lung transplants over 10 years. When extrapolating this to Mexico’s estimated 4,694 adult PAH patients in 2025, this resulted in 8,045 hospitalizations avoided and 25 transplants prevented with sotatercept plus BGT versus BGT alone.
CONCLUSIONS: This model suggests that adding sotatercept to BGT could significantly improve life expectancy and reduce the need for hospitalizations and transplants in Mexican PAH patients.
METHODS: A six-state Markov model was adapted to reflect the Mexican healthcare setting. It included four health states based on World Health Organization functional classes (WHO FC I-IV), a post-lung/heart transplant state, and death. Transition probabilities were derived from STELLAR, while mortality (adjusted for functional class) was obtained from the COMPERA registry and related published literature. Transplant probabilities and hospitalization rates were informed by Mexican publications. Hospitalizations and transplants avoided were contextualized using PAH epidemiology data from Mexican publications. Outcomes were estimated over a 10-year time horizon.
RESULTS: Sotatercept plus BGT resulted in an average life expectancy of 6.47 years versus 4.85 years with BGT alone (1.62 life years gained) over a 10-year time horizon. Per 1,000 patients, sotatercept plus BGT was projected to prevent 1,714 PAH-related hospitalizations (90% avoided hospitalizations) and 5.39 lung or heart-lung transplants over 10 years. When extrapolating this to Mexico’s estimated 4,694 adult PAH patients in 2025, this resulted in 8,045 hospitalizations avoided and 25 transplants prevented with sotatercept plus BGT versus BGT alone.
CONCLUSIONS: This model suggests that adding sotatercept to BGT could significantly improve life expectancy and reduce the need for hospitalizations and transplants in Mexican PAH patients.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-05, ISPOR 2026, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue S6
Code
CO85
Topic
Clinical Outcomes
Topic Subcategory
Comparative Effectiveness or Efficacy, Relating Intermediate to Long-term Outcomes
Disease
No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas, SDC: Cardiovascular Disorders (including MI, Stroke, Circulatory)