A LONG-TERM COST-EFFECTIVENESS MODELLING STUDY OF SEMAGLUTIDE FOR THE TREATMENT OF ADULTS WITH OVERWEIGHT AND OBESITY IN CHINA
Author(s)
Ruxu Jia, PhD Student, Jian Wang, PhD;
Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
OBJECTIVES: Obesity has become a major public health challenge in China, placing an increasing economic burden on the healthcare system. Clinical trials of STEP-1 and STEP-UP demonstrated the efficacy of semaglutide 2.4mg and 7.2mg with 17% and 21% body weight reduction, respectively. This study aimed to assess the health and economic impact of semaglutide among Chinese adults with overweight or obesity from a healthcare perspective.
METHODS: A Markov model was used to compare semaglutide 2.4mg and 7.2mg versus no treatment. The model simulated lifetime incidence of obesity-related complications, including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, sleep apnoea, cancers, fatty liver disease, hyperuricemia, gout, and knee replacement. Complication costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated over a lifetime horizon (40 years). Direct medical costs in the Chinese context were sourced from published literature and adjusted to the 2024 values (Chinese yuan, CNY). A discount rate of 4.5% was applied. A scenario analysis was conducted to estimate the short-term impact (5 years horizon) without discounting, and one-way sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of results.
RESULTS: Semaglutide 2.4mg and 7.2mg consistently reduced obesity-related complication costs and improved health outcomes compared with no treatment. Over a 40-year horizon, semaglutide 2.4 mg and 7.2 mg achieved accumulative cost savings of CNY 35,182 and 40,566, and yielded additional 1.433 and 1.839 QALYs, respectively, compared with no treatment. Scenario analysis showed that semaglutide 2.4 mg and 7.2 mg resulted in complication cost saving of CNY 8,699 (4.8 per day) and CNY 11,573 (6.3 per day) over 5 years horizon, respectively. One-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of results.
CONCLUSIONS: Long-term use of semaglutide in Chinese adults with overweight or obesity results in sustained QALY gains and net reductions in healthcare costs compared with no treatment, with greater benefits observed at higher doses.
METHODS: A Markov model was used to compare semaglutide 2.4mg and 7.2mg versus no treatment. The model simulated lifetime incidence of obesity-related complications, including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, sleep apnoea, cancers, fatty liver disease, hyperuricemia, gout, and knee replacement. Complication costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated over a lifetime horizon (40 years). Direct medical costs in the Chinese context were sourced from published literature and adjusted to the 2024 values (Chinese yuan, CNY). A discount rate of 4.5% was applied. A scenario analysis was conducted to estimate the short-term impact (5 years horizon) without discounting, and one-way sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of results.
RESULTS: Semaglutide 2.4mg and 7.2mg consistently reduced obesity-related complication costs and improved health outcomes compared with no treatment. Over a 40-year horizon, semaglutide 2.4 mg and 7.2 mg achieved accumulative cost savings of CNY 35,182 and 40,566, and yielded additional 1.433 and 1.839 QALYs, respectively, compared with no treatment. Scenario analysis showed that semaglutide 2.4 mg and 7.2 mg resulted in complication cost saving of CNY 8,699 (4.8 per day) and CNY 11,573 (6.3 per day) over 5 years horizon, respectively. One-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of results.
CONCLUSIONS: Long-term use of semaglutide in Chinese adults with overweight or obesity results in sustained QALY gains and net reductions in healthcare costs compared with no treatment, with greater benefits observed at higher doses.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-05, ISPOR 2026, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue S6
Code
EE226
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies
Disease
SDC: Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity)