QUANTIFYING TIME-VARYING MEDICATION REGIMEN COMPLEXITY USING A MACHINE-LEARNING-BASED PIPELINE IN PATIENTS WITH TYPE 2 DIABETES

Author(s)

Jun Gong, MPharm1, Antoinette Coe, PharmD, PhD1, Michael Dorsch, PharmD, MS1, Sarah Vordenberg, PharmD, MPH1, VG Vinod Vydiswaran, PhD2, Corey Lester, PharmD, PhD1;
1University of Michigan College of Pharmacy, Ann Arbor, MI, USA, 2University of Michigan Medical School, University of Michigan School of Information, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

Presentation Documents

OBJECTIVES: Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) experience complex medication regimens. The Medication Regimen Complexity Index (MRCI) is a validated measure based on dosage form, dosing frequency, and additional instructions, yet it’s limited by manual, static calculation. This study employed a machine-learning-based pipeline to automate time-varying MRCI estimation and identify longitudinal trends and key drivers of medication regimen complexity in T2DM patients.
METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, adults with T2DM treated at an academic medical center (2009-2019) were included. Electronic health records and pharmacy claims were integrated to construct longitudinal medication histories and compute index-standardized MRCI components: 1. Structured medication records mapped from National Drug Codes to RxNorm concept; 2. Unstructured dosing instructions extracted from free-text using a custom-trained named entity recognition (NER) model. MRCI was computed as the weighted sum of the dosage form, dosing frequency, and additional instructions components; updated with each prescription change. Temporal trends and drivers were assessed using linear regression and summarized using monthly population-level statistics.
RESULTS: The cohort included 7,976 patients, with 884,185 pharmacy claims and 490,081 outpatient medication orders. Average follow-up was 5.6 years. Unstructured text extraction was required for 79.8% of dosing instructions, and the NER model demonstrated high accuracy (F1 = 0.987). Mean total MRCI increased from 17.1 at diagnosis to 36.6 at 11 years, with a significant average monthly increase of 0.1 points (p < 0.001). At diagnosis, dosing frequency accounted for 49.6% of the total MRCI, followed by dosage form (40.6%), and instructions (9.8%). Over the follow-up period, both frequency and dosage form scores doubled. Diabetes-specific medications captured 19.6-21.7% of regimen complexity over the study period.
CONCLUSIONS: Medication regimen complexity increased steadily over time among patients with T2DM, reflecting cumulative treatment burden. Implementing scalable, automated MRCI can improve real-world computability of complexity and support population-level monitoring and targeted interventions in T2DM care.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2026-05, ISPOR 2026, Philadelphia, PA, USA

Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue S6

Code

PT11

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Predictive Analytics

Disease

SDC: Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity)

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