PROJECTED LIFETIME IMPACT OF TIRZEPATIDE ON HEALTH AND ECONOMIC OUTCOMES FOR MODERATE-TO-SEVERE OSA WITH OBESITY: A CHINESE MODELING ANALYSIS
Author(s)
Xiao Yi, M.D. FCCP1, Jean-Louis Pepin, PhD2, Ron Grunstein, PhD3, Philip McEwan, BSc, PhD4, Michal Pochopien, MSc, PharmD5, Anna Lanecka, MSc, PharmD5, Yuchen Ding, MSc, PharmD6, Emmanuel Bourmaud, MSc, PharmD6, Eva Lau, MSc, PharmD6, Helene Vioix, MSc, PharmD6.
1Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing, China, 2University Grenoble Alpes, Inserm, CHU Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France, 3Sleep & Circadian Research Group, Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, Macquarie University, Australia; Macquarie Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia; Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Cam, Sydney, Australia, 4HEOR Ltd, Cardiff, United Kingdom, 5Clever-Access, Krakow, Poland, 6Eli Lilly & Co. Ltd., Indianapolis, IN, USA.
1Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing, China, 2University Grenoble Alpes, Inserm, CHU Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France, 3Sleep & Circadian Research Group, Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, Macquarie University, Australia; Macquarie Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia; Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Cam, Sydney, Australia, 4HEOR Ltd, Cardiff, United Kingdom, 5Clever-Access, Krakow, Poland, 6Eli Lilly & Co. Ltd., Indianapolis, IN, USA.
OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated tirzepatide, a dual glucose‐dependent insulinotropic polypepide (GIP) and glucagon‐like peptide (GLP)‐1 receptor agonist, plus lifestyle modification (LM), for its potential to reduce OSA clinical and economic burden in adults with moderate-to-severe OSA and obesity in China.
METHODS: A cohort-based Markov model simulated lifetime cost-effectiveness in adults with moderate-to-severe OSA and obesity. Health states were defined by apnea-hypopnea index categories, with transition probabilities from the SURMOUNT-OSA trial. Baseline characteristics and complication risks were sourced from East Asian data, adjusted for body mass index. Direct costs and indirect costs were discounted at 5% annually.
RESULTS: LM alone resulted in a substantial burden, with per-patient event rates of 0.127 for stroke, 0.179 for coronary-heart-disease (CHD), 0.161 for resistant-hypertension (RH), 0.235 for type-2-diabetes (T2D), 0.333 for road-traffic-accidents (RTA), 0.507 for depression and 0.071 for cancer. Tirzepatide plus LM reduced stroke rates by 17%, CHD by 13%, RH by 12%, T2D by 34%, RTA by 14%, depression by 4% and cancer by 14%. Compared to LM alone, patients receiving tirzepatide gained an additional 1.24 quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) and 4.8 months of life. Total reduction of complication costs reached −¥21,075 per patient, driven by reduction in cardiometabolic complications costs (−¥12,714 for T2D, −¥3,436 for CHD, −¥2,419 for stroke and −¥1,985 for RH). Indirect costs were considerably reduced (−¥17,097).
CONCLUSIONS: In this simulated model, tirzepatide, in addition to LM was estimated to reduce complication rates, improve QALYs, and generate significant cost savings in patients with moderate-to-severe OSA and obesity in China. These findings support the value of tirzepatide in alleviating both the clinical and economic burden of OSA.
METHODS: A cohort-based Markov model simulated lifetime cost-effectiveness in adults with moderate-to-severe OSA and obesity. Health states were defined by apnea-hypopnea index categories, with transition probabilities from the SURMOUNT-OSA trial. Baseline characteristics and complication risks were sourced from East Asian data, adjusted for body mass index. Direct costs and indirect costs were discounted at 5% annually.
RESULTS: LM alone resulted in a substantial burden, with per-patient event rates of 0.127 for stroke, 0.179 for coronary-heart-disease (CHD), 0.161 for resistant-hypertension (RH), 0.235 for type-2-diabetes (T2D), 0.333 for road-traffic-accidents (RTA), 0.507 for depression and 0.071 for cancer. Tirzepatide plus LM reduced stroke rates by 17%, CHD by 13%, RH by 12%, T2D by 34%, RTA by 14%, depression by 4% and cancer by 14%. Compared to LM alone, patients receiving tirzepatide gained an additional 1.24 quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) and 4.8 months of life. Total reduction of complication costs reached −¥21,075 per patient, driven by reduction in cardiometabolic complications costs (−¥12,714 for T2D, −¥3,436 for CHD, −¥2,419 for stroke and −¥1,985 for RH). Indirect costs were considerably reduced (−¥17,097).
CONCLUSIONS: In this simulated model, tirzepatide, in addition to LM was estimated to reduce complication rates, improve QALYs, and generate significant cost savings in patients with moderate-to-severe OSA and obesity in China. These findings support the value of tirzepatide in alleviating both the clinical and economic burden of OSA.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-05, ISPOR 2026, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue S6
Code
EE16
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Disease
SDC: Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity)