BUDGET IMPACT ANALYSIS OF ASCIMINIB FOR THIRD-LINE TREATMENT OF CHRONIC MYELOID LEUKEMIA : A FIVE-YEAR PAYER PERSPECTIVE
Author(s)
Omar Maoujoud, PhD, MD1, sanaa haouraji, Msc2;
1Research team of Pharmacoeconomics & Pharmacoepidemiology, Moroccan Society of health economics (SMEPS), Facuty of Medicine, Mohamed V university, Rabat, Morocco, 2EOS Executive Lab, Casablanca, Morocco
1Research team of Pharmacoeconomics & Pharmacoepidemiology, Moroccan Society of health economics (SMEPS), Facuty of Medicine, Mohamed V university, Rabat, Morocco, 2EOS Executive Lab, Casablanca, Morocco
OBJECTIVES: Asciminib is a novel STAMP inhibitor targeting the BCR-ABL1 myristoyl pocket, indicated for chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukemia (CP-CML) after failure or intolerance to at least two prior tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). This study aimed to estimate the budget impact of introducing asciminib from the Moroccan public payer perspective over a five-year horizon (2026-2030)
METHODS: A budget impact model comparing scenarios with and without asciminib was developed following ISPOR Good Practice guidelines. The eligible population was estimated using an epidemiological funnel: Morocco population (37 million), CML incidence (1.5/100,000), chronic-phase proportion (90%), and third-line eligibility (56%), yielding 279 patients. Annual treatment costs were based on official Public Sale Prices: asciminib $53,251 versus weighted comparator $13,313. Market share projections assumed progressive uptake reaching 50% by year five. Uncertainty was assessed through one-way sensitivity analysis (OWSA), two-way sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA, 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations)
RESULTS: The five-year cumulative budget impact was +$16.3 million. The incremental cost per patient was +$39,938/year. PSA demonstrated model robustness: mean $16.4 million, 95% credible interval [$9.4-$25.7 million], coefficient of variation 26%. Budget impact was positive in 100% of simulations. OWSA identified target population (44%) and market share (44%) as key drivers, accounting for 88% of total variance. Scenario analysis showed range from $5.5 million (best case) to $26.0 million (worst case)
CONCLUSIONS: Introducing asciminib for third-line CP-CML treatment in Morocco generates a substantial but quantifiable budget impact with moderate uncertainty
METHODS: A budget impact model comparing scenarios with and without asciminib was developed following ISPOR Good Practice guidelines. The eligible population was estimated using an epidemiological funnel: Morocco population (37 million), CML incidence (1.5/100,000), chronic-phase proportion (90%), and third-line eligibility (56%), yielding 279 patients. Annual treatment costs were based on official Public Sale Prices: asciminib $53,251 versus weighted comparator $13,313. Market share projections assumed progressive uptake reaching 50% by year five. Uncertainty was assessed through one-way sensitivity analysis (OWSA), two-way sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA, 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations)
RESULTS: The five-year cumulative budget impact was +$16.3 million. The incremental cost per patient was +$39,938/year. PSA demonstrated model robustness: mean $16.4 million, 95% credible interval [$9.4-$25.7 million], coefficient of variation 26%. Budget impact was positive in 100% of simulations. OWSA identified target population (44%) and market share (44%) as key drivers, accounting for 88% of total variance. Scenario analysis showed range from $5.5 million (best case) to $26.0 million (worst case)
CONCLUSIONS: Introducing asciminib for third-line CP-CML treatment in Morocco generates a substantial but quantifiable budget impact with moderate uncertainty
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-05, ISPOR 2026, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue S6
Code
EE55
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Budget Impact Analysis, Value of Information
Disease
SDC: Oncology, SDC: Rare & Orphan Diseases, STA: Genetic, Regenerative & Curative Therapies