Uncertainty and Healthcare Decision Making: A Dangerous Combination?
Author(s)
Moderator: Howard Thom, BA, MSc, PhD, University of Bristol, Bristol, GLS, UK
Panelists: Jeroen Paul Jansen, PhD, University of California – San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA;Stephane Regnier, MBA, PhD, HEOR, Novartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland; Sabine E Grimm, PhD, Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Technology Assessment (KEMTA), Care and Public Health Research Institute (CAPHRI), Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences (FHML), Maastricht University Medical Centre+, Liege, WLG, Belgium
Presentation Documents
ISSUE: Inadequate handling of uncertainty in health technology assessment and how it can lead to inappropriate decision making. We will debate reasons for these inadequacies and the panellists’ proposed solutions.
OVERVIEW: Health technology assessment (HTA) is often faced with uncertainty, for example on the correct parameter values or structure for a model, extrapolation of short-term effects, differences in risk aversion between patients, or variation in individual responses. Healthcare decision making often takes inadequate account of this uncertainty. Reasons include that well known techniques for addressing uncertainty, such as probabilistic analyses, model averaging, or value of information (VoI), are inadequately employed and that uncertainty communication remains challenging. Our panel will draw on the latest research to debate the impact and reasons for these inadequacies, and the best approaches to managing uncertainty. This will be done through 5-10 minute presentations by the moderator and panellists, who each will share their experience and research on uncertainty assessment and management. Howard Thom will present a general overview and research on worst-case impact of ignoring uncertainty, Sabine Grimm will present the decision maker’s perspective and research linking VoI to managed access agreements, Stephane Regnier will provide an industry perspective and research on inferring causal treatment links, and Jeroen Jansen will discuss variation in patient response and risk appetites. Panellists will poll the audience to determine which type of uncertainties can have the biggest consequence and whether they believe current methodologies are appropriate to deal with the most serious uncertainties. There will be 30 minutes for debate and audience participation. Audience members will be able to submit questions through live polling or in person. Healthcare decision makers, manufacturers preparing technology submissions, and consultants advising on submissions would benefit practically from attending this panel. However, anyone working in HTA will find our discussion relevant and informative.
OVERVIEW: Health technology assessment (HTA) is often faced with uncertainty, for example on the correct parameter values or structure for a model, extrapolation of short-term effects, differences in risk aversion between patients, or variation in individual responses. Healthcare decision making often takes inadequate account of this uncertainty. Reasons include that well known techniques for addressing uncertainty, such as probabilistic analyses, model averaging, or value of information (VoI), are inadequately employed and that uncertainty communication remains challenging. Our panel will draw on the latest research to debate the impact and reasons for these inadequacies, and the best approaches to managing uncertainty. This will be done through 5-10 minute presentations by the moderator and panellists, who each will share their experience and research on uncertainty assessment and management. Howard Thom will present a general overview and research on worst-case impact of ignoring uncertainty, Sabine Grimm will present the decision maker’s perspective and research linking VoI to managed access agreements, Stephane Regnier will provide an industry perspective and research on inferring causal treatment links, and Jeroen Jansen will discuss variation in patient response and risk appetites. Panellists will poll the audience to determine which type of uncertainties can have the biggest consequence and whether they believe current methodologies are appropriate to deal with the most serious uncertainties. There will be 30 minutes for debate and audience participation. Audience members will be able to submit questions through live polling or in person. Healthcare decision makers, manufacturers preparing technology submissions, and consultants advising on submissions would benefit practically from attending this panel. However, anyone working in HTA will find our discussion relevant and informative.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2020-11, ISPOR Europe 2020, Milan, Italy
Code
12549
Topic
Health Technology Assessment