DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION TO ESTIMATE COST-BENEFIT OF PREVENTING SUDDEN CARDIAC DEATHS WITH AN IMPLANTABLE CARDIOVERTER DEFIBRILLATOR (ICD) VS. AMIODARONE IN FRANCE
Author(s)
Deniz HB, Caro JJ, Ward AJ Caro Research, Concord, MA, USA
Presentation Documents
OBJECTIVE: Until recently, primary prevention of sudden cardiac death depended on anti-arrhythmic drugs. The SCD-HeFT Trial confirmed the efficacy of ICD, as all-cause mortality was decreased 23% versus placebo. Estimating lives saved and economic impact of primary prevention of sudden cardiac death with an ICD versus amiodarone in France was the object of this study. METHODS: A discrete event simulation was developed to estimate effects over three years. Identical patients received either device or amiodarone. Post-implantation complications (lead and device-related) or toxicity from amiodarone could arise. Model parameters and risk functions were developed based on SCD-HeFT data, assuming life-threatening arrhythmia rates and other death are not differential. Probability of death given arrhythmia was 90% with amiodarone, 47% with ICD. To avoid ageism inherent in QALYs, the economic value society places on a life (5,697,127€) was derived from a meta-analysis and used in cost-benefit analyses. While estimates of the value of life vary from country to country, this value reflects a recent average for European countries. Costs are reported in 2004 € and discounted at 3%. In total, 100 replications of 1000 identical twin pairs were run. Sensitivity analyses were performed for key input parameters. RESULTS: ICD use in 1000 patients was predicted to prevent 62 premature deaths over three years. Total additional costs accrued were 20,121€ per patient. The cost/benefit ratio was 0.06 which means for every 1€ gained, 0.06€ has to be invested. In 55% of the replications ICD dominates Amiodarone. Investment in ICD is worthwhile whenever society values a life at more than 325,000€. CONCLUSION: ICDs increase immediate costs but their use is consistent with the value of life estimated in Western societies.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2005-05, ISPOR 2005, Washington, DC, USA
Value in Health, Vol. 8, No. 3 (May/June 2005)
Code
CV1
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost-comparison, Effectiveness, Utility, Benefit Analysis
Disease
Cardiovascular Disorders