THE STRUCTURE AND PARAMETERISATION OF BREAST CANCER TRANSITION MODEL AMONG CHINESE WOMEN
Author(s)
Huang Y, Li J
Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
OBJECTIVES: Markov model simulation based on natural history of disease is commonly employed for the comparative research of health interventions. The present study aims to simulate the natural progression of breast cancer and parameterise the initial and transition probabilities of multiple states of breast cancer development among Chinese women METHODS: The age-specific incidence, mortality, TNM (tumour size, the number of nodes and metastasis) stage distribution of breast cancer and the relapse rate of each clinical stage were collected from China’s cancer registry yearbooks and clinical epidemiological studies to simulate the process from full health to breast cancer to death among Chinese women aged 30 to 80 through a Markov cohort study. The validity analysis was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the model estimation. RESULTS: A Markov transition model with seven states (no breast cancer, TNM stages 0-IV breast cancer and death) was constructed for Chinese womenThe age-specific incidence, mortality and clinical stages distribution of breast cancer estimated by the initial and transition probabilities among different Markov states were highly consistent with the registered data and observed studies. CONCLUSIONS: A breast cancer transition model for Chinese women has been established with validity. It could be a point of reference for further economic evaluations and breast cancer screening policy formulation.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2018-09, ISPOR Asia Pacific 2018, Tokyo, Japan
Value in Health, Vol. 21, S2 (September 2018)
Code
PRM15
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Methodological & Statistical Research
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies, Modeling and simulation
Disease
Oncology