SPIRALLING HEALTHCARE EXPENDITURE IN MALAYSIA- IS IT SUSTAINABLE?

Author(s)

Perumal AK
B. Braun, KL, Malaysia

OBJECTIVES: The research hypothesis of this paper states that the present healthcare financing system in Malaysia is not sustainable in the long run. Three factors are acknowledged for this; ASEAN  is undergoing an i. Epidemiological transition with higher disease burden from CDs to NCDs and is located within the hotspot of ii. Emerging & iii. Re-Emerging diseases. The specific objectives are, first, to determine trends of the following indicators: total health expenditure as a percentage of GDP (THE % GDP), General Government Health Expenditure as a percentage of General Government Expenditure (GGHE % GGE), out of pocket (OOP), per-capita spending on health (PCSH), per capita spending out of pocket (PC-OOP). Second, estimating future spending trajectories of the indicators above from 2013 – 2030.  METHODS: Simple linear regression was used to conduct forecasts for 2013 – 2030 based on secondary data retrieved from Malaysia National Health Accounts report for the period of 1997 – 2012. This fulfills the three basic assumptions that projections should base on past information which is available, quantifiable and the assumption of continuity in the pattern. RESULTS: Every year, in the absence of cost containment policies, THE % GDP was predicted to grow at 9%, GGHE % GGE at 11% and OOP % GDP at 4%. In constant 2005 RM, THE was predicted to grow at RM1,916,000, PCSH at RM58.81 and PC-OOP at RM16.77 annually. The outlook, or projection, for 2013 – 2030 confirms continuity of uptrend via a linear regression model for all indicators. CONCLUSIONS: In 2012, RM15.15 billion was allocated for healthcare spending, which was 11% higher than the allocated amount. This shows that technical inefficiencies and allocative inefficiency exist. The government should consider cost containment strategies. The findings presented in this research agrees the research hypothesis that Malaysia’s present healthcare financing system is not sustainable in the long run.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2016-09, ISPOR Asia Pacific 2016, Singapore

Value in Health, Vol. 19, No. 7 (November 2016)

Code

PHP37

Topic

Economic Evaluation

Topic Subcategory

Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies

Disease

Multiple Diseases

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