FORECASTING LIFETIME HEALTH OUTCOMES AND COSTS OF TREATMENT FOR NON-ALCOHOLIC FATTY LIVER DISEASE
Author(s)
Chongmelaxme B1, Phisalprapa P2, Sawangjit R3, Dilokthornsakul P1, Chaiyakunapruk N4
1Naresuan University, Phitsanulok, Thailand, 2Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand, 3Mahasarakham University, Muang, Thailand, 4Monash University Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia
OBJECTIVES: Prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been increasing over the last decades due to lifestyle change and industrialization. However, the knowledge of long-term health outcomes and costs for NAFLD is limited. This study aims to forecast lifetime health outcomes and costs of treatment for NAFLD. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to mimic NAFLD disease progression. A total of ten treatment options (metformin, metadoxine, pentoxifylline, pioglitazone, ursodeoxycholic acid, vitamin E, weight reduction program, pioglitazone/losartan, pioglitazone/metformin, and vitamin E/vitamin C) and no treatment were included in this study. The number of cases prevented from advanced fibrosis, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and life expectancy were forecasted. Lifetime cost in US dollar unit of each treatment option was also estimated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to determine robustness of our findings and presented as 95% credible interval. RESULTS: Pentoxifylline resulted in the highest health benefit. It could increase the percentages of cases prevented from advanced fibrosis [23.78% (95% CrI: 6.45% to 41.26%)], cirrhosis [3.45% (95% CrI: -0.88% to 6.39%)], HCC [0.56% (95% CrI: -0.04% to 1.07%)], and it increases life expectancy [0.09 years (95% CrI: 0.03 to 0.15)] compared to no treatment. The average additional lifetime cost of pentoxifylline was $866.37 (95% CrI: $508.52 to $1,175.16)Weight reduction program and pioglitazone/metformin were the second and third best options, respectively. Health benefit and cost of ursodeoxycholic acid were worse than those of no treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Pentoxifylline shown the highest health benefit for NAFLD treatment. However, the average lifetime cost was moderately high. Our findings could be an important evidence supported, especially for clinicians and policy makers, for making decisions on NAFLD treatment and considering on coverage and reimbursement of treatment options.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2016-09, ISPOR Asia Pacific 2016, Singapore
Value in Health, Vol. 19, No. 7 (November 2016)
Code
CU2
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost-comparison, Effectiveness, Utility, Benefit Analysis
Disease
Gastrointestinal Disorders