OBJECTIVES The objective of this analysis was to apply a risk estimation model (REVEAL study by Chen, 2007) to predict HCC development in Brazilian CHB-infected subjects and to estimate the level of risk according to Viral Load distribution. METHODS We evaluated: gender, age, family history of HCC, prevalence of alcohol consumption, ALT, HBeAg and HBV DNA levels. Patients were from different regions of Brazil, diagnosed with CHB at the DASA in 2007. Regression coefficients derived from the Cox models of Chen's study were converted into risk scores (RS) and the predicted risks of HCC over 5 and 10 years calculated by predicted 5/10 years HCC risk = 1-(1-P0) exp (RS-RS0); being: P0: Predicted probability of HCC within 5/10 years for persons with the reference-level risk score RS0 and RS: Risk score of which HCC risk to be predicted. Costs for treatment was reported by Castelo (2007). RESULTS Of the total population (564) 64.5% were males and 62.1% were HBeAg negative. The median HBV DNA level was 1,789 and 72,924 copies/mL for HBeAg negative and positive patients, respectively. Patients male, older with high HBV DNA levels had the greatest risk of developing HCC. The mean (SD) estimated risk for 5 and 10 years in 1000 patients are 7.87 (6.82) and 18.30 (15.77), respectively. In patients older than 40 years old this risk is 27.34 (13.82) and for patients with HBV DNA levels higher than 10,000, the risk is 26.54 (15.75). The costs for treating these patients can vary from US$34,861.50 to US$50,558.70, if these patients are transplanted these costs can be from US$639,548.40 to US$927,519.92. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that the risk of HCC in the Brazilian HBV population is considerable and may signicantly impact the health care system.