QUANTIFYING THE HEALTH OUTCOMES OF MARKET ACCESS POLICIES – USING SIMULATION MODELING TO COMPARE ACCESS TO CANCER MEDICINES ACROSS GLOBAL MARKETS

Author(s)

Su W1, Lockwood C2, Chui C3, Vandigo J4, Haninger K4
1IHS Markit, Washington, DC, USA, 2IHS Markit, Santa Clara, CA, USA, 3IHS Markit, London, UK, 4Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), Washington, DC, USA

OBJECTIVES: To design a simulation model that can quantitatively project and compare the health outcomes of varying market access policies on cancer medicines across global markets. METHODS: Using Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) as an example, we conducted a literature review on health economics and market access models in the therapeutic area. Though the cost effectiveness of cancer medicines among various patient subpopulations has been well studied, research on how market access policies can lead to differential health outcomes has been primarily qualitative. We designed a de novo simulation model with 4 submodules – epidemiology, medicine, access policy, and disease pathway - to quantify the health outcomes of access policies. The model base case simulated the access landscape to NSCLC medicines in the United States (US) with 6 additional scenarios that replaced the US access policy with that of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, South Korea, and United Kingdom. RESULTS: The epidemiology module generated NSCLC patients based on real world 2006-2016 statistics on stage, genetic mutation, subtypes, and performance status. The medicine module includes chemotherapy, medicines targeting tumor blood vessel growth and various genetic mutations, and immunotherapies. The access policy module introduced the aforementioned medicines to patients per each country’s unique access landscape, such as dates of market authorization, reimbursement status, market share, indication expansion, early access schemes, dedicated cancer drug fund, and accounted for prescribing outside of the approved indication. Based on the efficacy of each drug and patient access status, the disease pathway module then projected overall survival, progression free survival, and mortality. The difference in health outcomes between the scenarios quantified how market access policies can impact the collective health outcomes of NSCLC patients in the US. CONCLUSIONS: Simulation models can provide quantitative evidence to evaluate the impact of country-level market access policies on patient health outcomes.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2017-05, ISPOR 2017, Boston, MA, USA

Value in Health, Vol. 20, No. 5 (May 2017)

Code

PRM19

Topic

Clinical Outcomes, Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Clinical Outcomes Assessment, Modeling and simulation

Disease

Oncology

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