MEASURING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SSB TAXES IN BRAZIL- AN INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS
Author(s)
Cardoso L1, Balbinotto Neto G2
1Universidade Federal de Goias, Goiânia, Brazil, 2Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate the effects of the SSB tax with special focus on macroeconomic and sectoral variables, considering the productive relations and the distributional issues associated with this policy. METHODS: To achieve this goal, we used the Leontief price model derived from the input-output matrix for Brazil, 2009. RESULTS: The results show that the sugary drinks sector is weak intersectoral relations and will not appear as a key sector for the Brazilian economy. Considering these connections, simulating a tax increase of 10% on the production of sugary drinks causes a contraction of 2.84% in the gross value of production, while the economy as a whole reduced by 0.017%. Concerning to employment, the economy loses 10,020 jobs, among which 38.45% occur in the sector itself, and the remaining in sectors directly related to the SSB or sectors related to food and drinks in general. The highest deciles of income distribution are those that lose more with taxation. With the tax increase, it is estimated an increase in government revenue at R$ 597 million. Finally, this policy would have an effect on general prices in the economy, raising the price index at 0.017%. CONCLUSIONS: The main conclusion of this study is that a tax increase applied to the soft drinks industry generates negative impacts on the economy, but it reaches the expected effect: reduction of household consumption for this product. Considering an additional tax of 10%, it was identified a little reduction in aggregate output given that 1) the sector has few intersectoral relations, 2) it is intended to meet final demand and 3) it has small share in the total economy. However, the increase in tax would significantly reduce the consumption of sugary drinks in the short term. These results reflect the short-term effect of rising prices on the economy.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2017-05, ISPOR 2017, Boston, MA, USA
Value in Health, Vol. 20, No. 5 (May 2017)
Code
PSY41
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Budget Impact Analysis, Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies
Disease
Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders