DEVELOPMENT OF A DEPENDENCE SCALE-BASED COST-EFFECTIVENESS FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS THE VALUE OF ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE TREATMENTS
Author(s)
Roth JA1, Cohen JT2, Neumann PJ2, Zhu CW3, Stern Y4, Sullivan SD5
1Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA, 2Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA, 3Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Bronx, NY, USA, 4Columbia University, New York, NY, USA, 5University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
OBJECTIVES: Healthcare payers must compare the value of alternative Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) treatments, but existing modeling frameworks are limited and focus primarily on delay to institutionalization. The Dependence Scale (DS) reflects the level of assistance AD patients require and is associated with AD progression (across cognitive, functional and behavioral domains), health-related quality of life (HRQOL), and direct medical and non-medical expenditures. Nonetheless, there are no established DS-based cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) frameworks. We endeavored to fill this gap. METHODS: We developed a probabilistic state-transition simulation model that projects long-term cost-effectiveness based on DS changes. The model relates DS to HRQOL and cost using findings from Guo (2014) and Zhu (2015), respectively. The relationship between DS and mortality can be toggled, facilitating analysis of indirect treatment effects on survival. Outcomes include AD progression, life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs related to medication, inpatient and outpatient care, and informal caregiver time. To illustrate a model application, we evaluated a hypothetical oral agent for mild AD (baseline DS=3) that halves the DS progression rate while taken, is discontinued at a DS≥10, costs $500/month, and doesn’t impact mortality. Additional scenarios will be explored. RESULTS: Over a lifetime, monthly AD progression averaged 0.022 DS points (new treatment) and 0.045 DS points (standard care). The new treatment added 0.25 QALYs and increased costs by $19,200. Most of this cost increase reflects the new drug ($36,400); the biggest cost offsets were reduced caregiver time (-$12,300) and inpatient care (-$2,900). The hypothetical treatment was cost-effective in 14%, 52%, and 83% of simulation runs at willingness-to-pay thresholds of $50,000, $75,000, and $100,000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Our DS-based modeling framework provides a new approach to evaluate the long-term comparative-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative AD strategies using an increasingly common trial endpoint associated with HRQOL and cost.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2017-05, ISPOR 2017, Boston, MA, USA
Value in Health, Vol. 20, No. 5 (May 2017)
Code
PRM71
Topic
Methodological & Statistical Research
Topic Subcategory
Modeling and simulation
Disease
Geriatrics, Mental Health, Neurological Disorders