A GLOBAL EPIDEMIOLOGICAL FORECAST OF HOSPITAL-TREATED INFECTION EVENTS AND INFECTION TYPES

Author(s)

Kristo F, Dorfman K, Ayodele L
Decision Resources Group, Burlington, MA, USA

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the global burden of Hospital-Treated Infection Events (HTIs) and HTI subtypes in 2016, and forecast the number of HTI events through 2026 using country-specific hospital discharge databases and literature review. METHODS: Hospital-treated infections are classified into community-acquired, healthcare-associated, and hospital-acquired infections. Six types of infections: urinary tract infections, respiratory, surgical site, bloodstream, intra-abdominal, and skin structure infections affect millions of patients every year placing a huge burden on low-and middle-income countries. We estimated the number of HTI events for each infection type by analyzing large hospital discharge databases and reviewing country-specific literature. We forecast changes in the number of events through 2026 based on economic development and changes in country-specific demographics. RESULTS: We estimate that pneumonias are the predominant infection types among European countries at 13 per 1,000 individuals, while urinary tract infections are predominant in the Americas at 16 per 1,000 individuals, a rate 3.6 times higher than urinary tract infections among European countries. Bloodstream event rates across Middle East and African countries are about 2.8 times higher than European countries, reflecting poor infection control measures. We predict a 34.8 % increase in surgical-site infection events in Middle Eastern and African countries over the forecast period. CONCLUSIONS: We observed heterogeneity in the rates of hospital-treated infection types among regions of the world. We predict increases in hospital-treated infection events across different regions due to demographic trends.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2017-05, ISPOR 2017, Boston, MA, USA

Value in Health, Vol. 20, No. 5 (May 2017)

Code

PMD19

Topic

Epidemiology & Public Health

Disease

Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)

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