OBJECTIVES:

To estimate the incidence of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) globally between 2016 and 2026 and the estimated prevalence of EGFR mutations in this population. Oncogenic mutations have attracted more attention as carriers are eligible for targetted treatments and disease outcome can be modified based on the presence of specific mutations.

METHODS:

To estimate the incidence of NSCLC we analyzed country-specific cancer registries for lung cancer (C34) and NSCLC histology data (IARC, 2013). We reviewed the peer-reviewed literature for population-based studies estimating the prevalence of EGFR mutations in patients diagnosed with NSCLC. The ten-year forecast for incidence incorporated risk factors such as economic development, smoking, screening and demographic changes related to aging and population growth. When country-specific data were unavailable, a risk-factor and GDP-based model was used to extrapolate data from a proxy country. The prevalence of EGFR mutation was assumed to be constant over the forecast period.

RESULTS:

In 2016, the incidence of NSCLC varied widely, ranging from 3 to 57 per 100,000 in Africa and North America respectively, with approximately 2 million cases diagnosed globally. Over the next ten years, we expect approximately 25% increase in incident NSCLC cases worldwide. Africa and low-income Asia Pacific countries are expected to grow around 40% due to demographic change and other risk factors. The prevalence of EGFR mutation ranged from 19-41%, with approximately 668 thousand NSCLC patients with EGFR mutations worldwide, in 2016.

CONCLUSIONS:

The incidence of NSCLC will continue to increase over the next ten years due to an increase in risk factors, population growth, and aging. Further analyses estimating the increase in NSCLC incidence that is attributable to modifiable risk factors and assessing the prevalence of other oncogenic mutations with targeted-therapy potential is indicated.