THE IMPACT OF LIFTING GOVERNMENT PRICE CONTROLS ON GLOBAL PHARMACEUTICAL INNOVATION AND POPULATION HEALTH
Author(s)
Schwartz TT1, Ward AS1, Xu X1, Sullivan J2
1Precision Health Economics, Oakland, CA, USA, 2Precision Health Economics, Boston, MA, USA
Presentation Documents
OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of lifting government price controls in non-US OECD countries on global biopharmaceutical innovation and population health. METHODS: The Health Economics Medical Innovation Simulation (THEMIS), a Monte Carlo microsimulation, provided estimates of changes in new molecules released and quality-adjusted life expectancy after lifting government price controls in non-US OECD countries. THEMIS tracks the evolution of future health and innovation for populations aged 50 and older under different technological, policy, and/or health trends. In this analysis, 20% and 30% increases in non-US OECD prices were modeled to approximate a move to market-based pricing, based on prior research on the impact of regulation on biopharmaceutical industry revenues, yielding an 8-12% increase in OECD market size based on the comparison of US and other OECD pharmaceutical spending. A 3.5% elasticity of innovation was estimated, meaning that a 1% increase in revenues leads to a 3.5% increase in new drug releases. The value of a statistical life year was set at $200,000. RESULTS: If government price controls in other OECD countries were lifted, the number of new treatments available would increase by 9%-12% by 2030 (equivalent to 8-13 new drugs in that year). For an individual aged 15-years-old today, lifting government price controls would increase life expectancy by approximately 0.4 to 0.9 years. Lifetime gains in health and quality of life across all OECD countries — net of drug and medical spending and appropriately monetized— would amount to $589 billion-$1.51 trillion in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Lifting government price control policies would result in an increase in revenues and R&D, and in turn, population health.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2018-05, ISPOR 2018, Baltimore, MD, USA
Value in Health, Vol. 21, S1 (May 2018)
Code
PHP216
Topic
Health Policy & Regulatory
Topic Subcategory
Approval & Labeling
Disease
Multiple Diseases