VALIDATING THE UKPDS 82 RISK EQUATIONS TO CONTEMPORARY OUTCOMES STUDIES IN TYPE 2 DIABETES

Author(s)

Grant D1, Foos V2, McEwan P3
1IMS Health, London, UK, 2IMS Health, Basel, Switzerland, 3Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff, UK

OBJECTIVES: The IMS CORE Diabetes Model (CDM) is a widely published and previously validated decision support tool. The model uses the UKPDS 68 risk equations (REs) to predict cardiovascular events and recent studies have demonstrated the model’s validity to predict event rates consistent with those reported in contemporary T2DM outcomes studies.  The CDM has been updated to include the new UKPDS 82 REs; consequently the objective of this study was to compare the event rate predictions from the UKPDS 82 and 68 REs within the CDM. METHODS:    A total of 86 validation simulations were performed to data from ACCORD, ADVANCE, VADT and UKPDS.  Simulation cohorts mirroring baseline characteristics of each of the trials were generated and intensive and conventional treatment arms modeled for the relevant study specific follow-up. Predicted versus observed cardiovascular and microvascular complications and all-cause mortality (ACM) were assessed using the coefficient of determination (R) goodness of fit measure. RESULTS: Across all validation studies the CDM simulations produced an R statistic of 0.909 using UKPDS 68 and 0.762 using UKPDS 82.  R statistic for MI, stroke, CHF, CV death, and ACM were 0.773, 0.853, 0.499, 0.659 and 0.966 for the UKPDS 68 REs and 0.742, 0.848, 0.852, 0.672 and 0.88 for the UKPDS 82 REs. Validating against 20-year outcomes data (UKPDS) resulted in R of 0.992 and 0.993 for UKPDS 68 and 82 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The CDM model has been extensively validated using the UKPDS 68 risk equations and shown to have good predictive validity. Initial validation using the UKPDS 82 equations show an improved fit to the UKPDS data, but less accurate external validation to recent outcomes study trials data. This may be due to necessary assumptions applied regarding modifiable risk factor trajectories or the functional form of the new equations. Further research is required to assess the robustness of these new equations.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2014-05, ISPOR 2014, Palais des Congres de Montreal

Value in Health, Vol. 17, No. 3 (May 2014)

Code

PDB81

Topic

Economic Evaluation

Topic Subcategory

Cost-comparison, Effectiveness, Utility, Benefit Analysis

Disease

Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders

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