PREDICTIVE VALUE OF PATIENT-REPORTED OUTCOMES TO MUCOSAL HEALING IN PATIENTS WITH MODERATELY TO SEVERELY ACTIVE ULCERATIVE COLITIS

Author(s)

Colombel JF1, Han C2, Reinisch W3, Feagan B4, Marano C5, Strauss R5, Johanns J5, Zhang H5, Gibson P6, Collins J7, Rutgeerts P8, Sandborn W9
1Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Lille, France, 2Janssen Global Services LLC, Malvern, PA, USA, 3University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria, 4Robarts Research Institute The University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada, 5Janssen R&D, LLC, Spring House, PA, USA, 6The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Australia, 7Oregon Health Sciences University, Portland, OR, USA, 8University Hospital Gasthuisberg, Leuven, Belgium, 9University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA

OBJECTIVES: To assess the predictive value of patient-reported stool frequency and rectal bleeding for mucosal healing based on endoscopic evaluation in patients with active UC. METHODS: Patients with active UC defined by a Mayo score of 6-12 including an endoscopy subscore of ≥2 were randomized to receive placebo or golimumab (GLM) 200mg/100mg or 400mg/200mg at weeks 0 and 2, respectively. Patient-reported stool frequency and rectal bleeding from weeks 0 through week 6 were collected from the most recent consecutive 3-day period within the 2 weeks prior to the visit. Responder was defined as normalized stool frequency or no rectal bleeding. Mucosal healing is defined as an endoscopy subscore of the Mayo score of 0 or 1. Odds Ratio (OR), positive predictive value (PPV) and likelihood Ratio Positive (LR+) were estimated for predicting mucosal healing using normalized stool frequency or no rectal bleeding. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was developed based on different cut-off of combined stool frequency and rectal bleeding scores (0-6). RESULTS: At week 0, 99% of patients reported abnormal stool frequency and 86.9% reported rectal bleeding.  Among patients who reported no rectal bleeding at week 6, 66.5% achieved mucosal healing compared to 16.0% of patients with rectal bleeding (OR=9.9, p<0.001, PPV=0.65, LR=3.0). Similarly, among patients with normalized stool frequency at week 6, 77.1% achieved mucosal healing vs. 32.8% % of patients with abnormal stool frequency at week 6 (OR=6.9, p<0.001, PPV=0.77, LR=5.3). On ROC curve, a cut-off of ≤2 on a combined stool frequency and rectal bleeding score resulted in a sensitivity of 85% and specificity of 70.6% for predicting mucosal healing at Week 6. CONCLUSIONS: Normalized stool frequency and no rectal bleeding are predictors for mucosal healing in patients with UC.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2014-05, ISPOR 2014, Palais des Congres de Montreal

Value in Health, Vol. 17, No. 3 (May 2014)

Code

PGI27

Topic

Patient-Centered Research

Topic Subcategory

Patient-reported Outcomes & Quality of Life Outcomes

Disease

Gastrointestinal Disorders

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