INTERNAL VALIDATION OF MAPPING ANALYSES FOR HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

Author(s)

Trueman D, Treharne C
Abacus International, Bicester, UK

OBJECTIVES: Mapping between health status measures is common practice within health economic evaluations. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the suitability of hold-out validation, whereby models are fitted to a subset of data and then tested in the remaining observations, compared to other methods of internal validation utilising full sample approaches in small to medium sized samples. METHODS: Four models predicting EQ-5D from the SF-12 were estimated using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Models were estimated using three hypothetical sample sizes of 500, 1,000, and 4,000 observations. For each model and sample size, two hold-out validation specifications were compared against alternative estimators of error: the naïve resubstitution error; repeated 10-fold cross validation; the optimism-corrected bootstrap; the 0.632 bootstrap. The results from these estimators were compared against asymptotic estimates of the true error indices in the remaining observations (n=15,675). Estimators were evaluated by assessment of bias and variance. The exercise was repeated 500 times. RESULTS: Hold-out methods were subject to the largest variance across all estimators and sample sizes. Variance was lower and similar in the full sample estimators (bootstrap and cross-validation methods). The extent of bias in any sample size was associated with the degree to which the algorithms were adaptive to the training sample data. For the two mapping algorithms which were not adaptive to the training sample data, bias was low for all estimators. In the two algorithms which were more adaptive to the training sample data, the naïve resubstitution error was associated with a downward bias, hold-out methods exhibited an upward bias, and all full sample methods exhibited a low degree of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Hold-out validation exhibited the highest variance of all methods in all scenarios. Full-sample designs offer lower variance and are preferable to continued use of hold-out validation with small to medium sized datasets.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2014-05, ISPOR 2014, Palais des Congres de Montreal

Value in Health, Vol. 17, No. 3 (May 2014)

Code

PRM111

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Confounding, Selection Bias Correction, Causal Inference, PRO & Related Methods

Disease

Multiple Diseases

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