RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE CALCULATION OF TRANSITION PROBABILITIES IN MARKOV COHORT MODELS- A TARGETED LITERATURE REVIEW

Author(s)

Olariu E1, Cadwell K1, Fox D1, Hancock E1, Trueman D1, Ratcliffe M1, Grieve R2, Chevrou-Severac H3
1PHMR Ltd, London, UK, 2London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK, 3Takeda Pharmaceuticals International AG, Glattpark-Opfikon, Switzerland

OBJECTIVES:  Although Markov cohort models represent one of the most common forms of decision-analytic models used in health technology assessment (HTA), correct implementation of such models requires reliable estimation of transition probabilities, often in the context of incomplete datasets (e.g. limited follow-up or not containing all relevant comparators). This study sought to identify formal recommendations, consensus statements or guidelines which detailed how such transition probability matrices should be estimated. METHODS:  A literature review was performed to identify relevant publications in the following databases: Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library and Pubmed. Electronic searches were supplemented by hand-searches of HTA websites in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Sweden and the UK. One reviewer assessed studies for eligibility. RESULTS:  Of the

Conference/Value in Health Info

2016-10, ISPOR Europe 2016, Vienna, Austria

Value in Health, Vol. 19, No. 7 (November 2016)

Code

PRM89

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Modeling and simulation

Disease

Multiple Diseases

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