OBJECTIVES:  Non-small cell lung cancer (nSCLC) is one of the most frequent cancers in Portugal. The high number of innovative therapies entering this market in the near future will pose a significant challenge for State Health expenditure and particularly for individual Hospitals’ budget. This study aims to analyze and forecast the financial impact of nSCLC market dynamics until 2020. METHODS:  nSCLC patient estimation from 2016 to 2020 was calculated as a linear prediction of historical data (incidence, number of treated patients per cancer type and mutation, progression rates between treatment lines and regimen share per line) considering the impact of upcoming events (product launches and additional indications). Treated patients were converted to expenditure considering a cost per patient that comprised both products’ list price and expected time on therapy. RESULTS:  nSCLC incidence is expected to increase at an annual rate of 1.36% until 2020. Due to the increase in Progression-Free Survival (PFS) brought by innovative therapies, the increase in months of treatment will be higher (2.39% every year). Additionally, the introduction of more expensive therapies will cause an increase in drug-related costs of 5.84% annually. It is estimated that in 2020 nSCLC drug expenditure will account for 28.7 M€, over 9M€ above the 2013 figures. Immunotherapy, a new treatment class, will be responsible for 1/3 of the 2020 nSCLC cost. CONCLUSIONS:  The common understanding is that the adoption of innovative therapies will be beneficial for nSCLC patients. However, oncology drugs are fully-funded by the Portuguese State and Hospitals have a limited budget to ensure treatment for all the population. Therefore, trade-offs must be considered when choosing the best therapeutic option. Understanding and predicting the drug-related expenditure for the most prevalent diseases enables a more efficient decision-making process and a more informed discussion on access to innovation to those in need.