CHALLENGING MODEL COMPLEXITY; A SIMPLER APPROACH FOR DEVELOPING MARKETS

Author(s)

Marijam A, Standaert B
GSK Vaccines, Wavre, Belgium

OBJECTIVES: Influenza disease causes a global economical and health burden in all age groups. During recent years, two influenza B lineages have shown to appear concurrently. This reduces the effectiveness of standard trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs), which protect against two influenza A (H1N1, H3N2) and one, seasonally chosen, influenza B lineage. To address the need for a better protection, quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) have been introduced, protecting against both predominant influenza A and B subtypes. A detailed influenza comprehensive cost-effectiveness model (FLORENCE) was developed to assist decision makers estimate the value of switching from TIV to QIV. However, most countries found it difficult to adapt or present, due to its intensive data need and “background” calculations. The aim of this project was to develop a simpler influenza costutility model (FLOU) that would facilitate easier implementation, reduce the data burden and give a different methodological approach. METHODS: Validation was made by populating both models with the available data for Brazil and comparing base-case results. RESULTS: Both models predict that a switch from TIV to QIV would be a cost-effective decision for Brazil in any scenario. Model validation showed a less than 1% deviation of incremental costs and cases over a population wide analysis (TIV vs. QIV). In comparison to FLORENCE, FLOU uses significantly less parameters (35 vs. 413), performs a sensitivity-analysis much faster (up to 3 minutes vs. up to 6 hours), assumes a one-year intervention, and allows for a comparison of different strategies for each cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis indicated that the simpler model can produce meaningful and easily understandable health-economic results, with a smaller data burden.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2016-10, ISPOR Europe 2016, Vienna, Austria

Value in Health, Vol. 19, No. 7 (November 2016)

Code

PRM50

Topic

Economic Evaluation, Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies, Modeling and simulation

Disease

Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)

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