OBJECTIVES:  Current international guidelines for breast cancer follow-up are not specific to individual risk of local regional recurrences. Instead, for personalised follow-up it is required to have more precise estimates of local regional recurrence probability as a function of time. The objective of this study is to identify prognostic factors, and to quantify individualized and time dependent local regional recurrence risk rates. METHODS:  Prognostic factors for local regional recurrence of breast cancer were identified due to a three-step funnel approach, including: scoping literature review, expert consultation and stepwise multivariate regression analysis. Quantification of the prognostic value of each risk factor was performed with a regression model based on a five-year dataset of women diagnosed with breast cancer in the Netherlands in 2005 or 2006 (n=17762). Six-month interval risk probabilities were derived from regression estimates by calculating coefficients of the prognostic factors. RESULTS:  Eight prognostic factors were identified, including: age, tumour size, multifocality, gradation, adjuvant chemo-, adjuvant radiation-, hormonal therapy and triple negative status. Expected inter-patient variability was elucidated by average, and high risk example patient types with local regional, non-uniform distributed, recurrence risks of 5.2% and 12% over a five-year period. CONCLUSIONS: It is concluded that local regional recurrence risks are not distributed uniformly, and time depended, over the five-year follow-up period. The calculated prognostic value of the factors enables quantification of risks for local regional recurrences on six-month time intervals for the individual patient. Implicating improved allocation of hospital capacities and resources, local regional recurrence risk profiling is a first step towards tailored follow-up in breast cancer care.