OBJECTIVES: UKPDS 82 provided updated and new event equations for use in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) that include new risk factor (RF) predictors. These new RFs do not routinely get reported in clinical studies; consequently, the objective of this study research was to report plausible baseline RF values and their time-dependent trajectories and quantify their impact upon predicted complication rates. METHODS: Availability of baseline and time-dependent RF data was assessed using a pragmatic literature review. Univariate sensitivity analysis of the UKPDS 82 equations (over a 40-year horizon ) was undertaken to assess the impact of low-density lipoprotein [LDL]; microalbuminuria (MA); heart rate (HR); white blood cell count (WBC): haemoglobin (Hb) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on predicted diabetes complications per 1,000 patients, using UKPDS baseline values (varied within the 95% central range). RESULTS: The review identified 32 studies reporting baseline RF values typically consistent with UKPDS (review versus UKPDS): LDL (2.6-3.8 versus 3.49mmol/l); MA (11-45% versus 6.5%); HR (67-72 versus 72bpm); WBC (5.7-7.9 versus 6.6x10/ml); Hb (12.4-14 versus 14.5g/dl); the exception was eGFR where baseline values (33-101 versus 77.5ml/min/1.73m) and decline (0.3-5.2ml/min/1.73m/year) varied widely. Utilising UKPDS 82 baseline values resulted in 877 macrovascular and 133 microvascular events predicted with 691 to 1,181 and 116 to 182, respectively, predicted in sensitivity analyses; drivers of risk were LDL and eGFR. Varying eGFR decline between 0.3 to 5.2ml/min/1.73m/year resulted in annual event rates for end stage renal disease (ESRD) between 0.021 to 1.251%; holding eGFR constant over time resulted in ESRD annual event rate of 0.020%, significantly lower than observed in UKPDS (0.13%). CONCLUSIONS: Appropriate specification of RF is important in diabetes modelling. This study suggests that the UKPDS profile is generally consistent with other identified T2DM populations. Modelling a decline in eGFR improved the predictive accuracy of ESRD incidence.